Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The red-hot New York Yankees will go for their sixth straight win as they play host to the Minnesota Twins at Yankee Stadium. Fox Sports North will showcase this AL matchup and the action gets going at 1:05 p.m. ET.

Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees Odds

New York (-180) is favored over Minnesota (+170) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this game at 9.5 runs. Odds for wagering on the game’s total sit at -120 for the under and +100 for the over. You can also bet on the game’s runline with the most recent odds coming in at Twins +1.5 runs (-130) and Yankees +-1.5 runs (+110).

The Yankees are 14-9 SU and 12-10 ATS. They’ve lost 1.9 units for moneyline bettors while earning 0.1 units against the spread (ATS). New York has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven. The Twins are 8-11 SU and have gone 11-7 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 1.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline through the early portions of the season, but have gained 1.5 units ATS. Minnesota has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven.

Yankees games have an over/under record of 15-6-1 so far in 2018. Minnesota has an over/under record of 9-9.

Kyle Gibson is getting the start for the visiting Twins. The right-handed Gibson is 1-1 with a 4.29 ERA and 20 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Yankees this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Yankees are sending lefty Jordan Montgomery (2-0, 3.80 ERA) to the mound. Montgomery has 17 punchouts and nine walks to his name, as well as a 1.41 WHIP. Montgomery only made one start against the Twins in 2017 (0-1, 9.00 ERA and three strikeouts across six innings).

As a unit, New York’s pitchers have allowed 4.7 runs per game overall this season. The team’s starters have an ERA of 4.07, a WHIP of 1.27 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.1. The bullpen has a 3.83 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 13.1 K/9.

The New York offense has produced 6.2 runs per contest, including 7.3 per game over its last 10 games and 8.6 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .311/.407/.605 over its last five contests and is 5-0 SU during that stretch.

The Yankees’ hitters have been led by shortstop Didi Gregorius and right fielder Aaron Judge. Gregorius is hitting .372/.470/.833 with nine home runs, 29 RBIs and 20 runs scored, while Judge is hitting .345 with seven homers, 17 RBIs and 22 runs scored.

Judge appeared to enjoy facing righties at home last year. Across 257 such plate appearances, he slashed .318/.424/.771 (compared to his overall season line of .284/.422/.627).

For the visiting squad, Minnesota’s pitching staff allowed 5.2 runs per game and its starters own a 4.56 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 9.30 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 5.55, along with a WHIP of 1.35.

The Twins offense has slashed .231/.308/.382 on its way to 4.0 runs scored per game this season, including 3.8 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (0-5 SU).

Minnesota’s offense has been led by right fielder Max Kepler and first baseman Joe Mauer. Kepler is slashing .308/.384/.585 with 20 hits, eight RBIs and eight runs scored, while Mauer (.306/.456/.403) has produced 19 hits, six RBIs and nine runs scored.

Maintaining a slash line of .136/.212/.254 across 66 plate appearances, Kepler seemed to take a step back when hitting lefties on the road last year (his total season line was .243/.312/.425).

The Twins have gained 0.6 units and are 2-2 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in two of those games, compared to two that’ve hit the under against lefty starters. On the other hand, the Yankees have lost 2.7 units and are 7-8 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 10 of those games, compared to four that went under.

Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees Free MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Yankees, ATS Winner – Twins, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The Twins have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games. The Yankees have hit 22 over their last 10.
  • Minnesota has recorded 20.0 runs + hits + errors per game over its last 10 games and 18.6 over its last five.
  • The Twins have lost seven of their last eight games SU.