Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Minnesota Twins will play the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. The opening pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports North will showcase this AL matchup.

Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros Odds

Minnesota (+195) is coming into this one as the underdog to Houston (-215) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this night game at 8.5 runs. Odds for betting on the game’s total stand at -115 for the under and -105 for the over. Gamblers can also wager on the game’s spread with the current runline odds standing at Twins +1.5 runs (-110) and Astros -1.5 runs (-110).

The Twins are 63-75 SU and have gone 70-67 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 12.2 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 2.0 units ATS. Minnesota has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Astros, on the other hand, are 86-53 SU and 70-68 ATS. They’ve lost 11.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 4.3 units ATS. Houston has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven.

Houston games have an over/under record of 60-71-7 in 2018. Minnesota has an over/under record of 66-68-3.

Right-hander Jake Odorizzi is projected to start for Minnesota. Odorizzi is 5-9 with a 4.41 ERA and 144 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with four strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA against Houston this year.

The Astros are handing the ball to Framber Valdez (2-1, 1.26 ERA), who has 10 strikeouts and seven walks, as well as a WHIP of 0.91. Valdez hasn’t faced the Twins yet this year and did not pitch in the majors in 2017.

Houston’s pitching staff has given up 3.3 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. The team’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 3.17, a WHIP of 1.11 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 10.4. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 2.95, a WHIP of 1.04 and a K/9 of 10.8.

The Houston offense is putting up 4.9 runs per contest, including 4.4 per game over its last 10 games and 4.0 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .224/.284/.391 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.

The Astros’ batters have been led by third baseman Alex Bregman and second baseman Jose Altuve. Bregman is hitting .296/.395/.549 with 28 home runs, 91 RBIs and 94 runs scored, while Altuve’s line is .318/.382/.451 with 10 homers, 51 RBIs, 69 runs and 15 steals.

In the other dugout, Minnesota’s pitchers have allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.63 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 8.24 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.55, along with a K/9 of 9.16.

The Twins offense has slashed .244/.315/.404 on its way to 4.4 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.3 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 4.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).

Minnesota’s offensive production has been sparked by outfielder Eddie Rosario and first baseman Joe Mauer. Rosario is slashing .292/.329/.484 with 22 home runs, 74 RBIs and 83 runs scored, while Mauer is slashing .277/.347/.375 with five homers, 39 RBIs and 49 runs scored.

The Astros have lost 1.3 units and are 45-41 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 36 of those games, as opposed to 45 that’ve gone under against righty starters.

Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Astros, ATS Winner – Twins, O/U – UNDER

Betting Notes

  • Minnesota has recorded 16 extra-base hits over its last five games. Houston has 14 XBH over its last five.
  • The Twins have lost five of their last six games SU.
  • Houston has recorded 20.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 18.0 over its last five.
  • The Twins have hit 14 home runs in their last 10 games. The Astros have hit 10 over their last 10.