Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Detroit Tigers will play host to the Minnesota Twins at Comerica Park. Fox Sports North will televise the action and the game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers Odds

Detroit (+100) is the home-team underdog to Minnesota (-110) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this night game at 9 runs. Odds for betting on the game’s total stand at -120 for the under and +100 for the over. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the current runline odds sitting at +135 for the Twins -1.5 runs and -155 for the Tigers +1.5 runs.

The Tigers are 79-70 against the spread (ATS)despite being only 61-89 straight up (SU). The team hasn’t moved the needle a whole lot for gamblers, losing 4.0 units for moneyline bettors and 1.3 units (ATS). Detroit has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total went over in four of those seven. The Twins, on the other hand, are 69-81 SU and have gone 75-74 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 14.1 units for gamblers taking the moneyline and 3.8 units ATS. Minnesota is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone over in six of those seven.

Tigers games have had an over/under record of 64-77-8 in 2018. The Twins have an over/under record of 74-72-3.

Jake Odorizzi is getting the nod for the visiting Twins. The right-handed Odorizzi (6-10, 4.41 ERA) has racked up 153 strikeouts in 155 innings so far. He’s 0-0 with 11 strikeouts and a 5.40 ERA against Detroit this year (two starts).

The Tigers will put the ball in the left hand of Daniel Norris (0-4, 6.14 ERA, 1.40 WHIP), who has 35 strikeouts and 12 walks this season. Norris hasn’t faced the Twins yet this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-1, 9.64 ERA and two strikeouts across four and 2-third innings).

As a unit, Detroit’s pitching staff has yielded 4.8 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have an ERA of 4.53, a WHIP of 1.30 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.4. The bullpen has a 4.45 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 7.9 K/9. In 67 games against AL Central foes, Tigers starters have an ERA of 4.56 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.60.

Detroit’s hitters are putting up 3.9 runs per contest, including 3.8 per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over their last five. The team has hit .211/.276/.343 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that span.

The Tigers’ offense has been led by right fielder Nicholas Castellanos and third baseman Jeimer Candelario. Castellanos is hitting .296/.354/.491 with 21 home runs, 81 RBIs and 79 runs scored, while Candelario is batting .229 with 19 homers, 53 RBIs and 74 runs.

In the other dugout, Minnesota’s pitching staff allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starters own a 4.60 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 8.25 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.68, along with a WHIP of 1.40.

The Twins offense has slashed .247/.317/.404 on its way to 4.4 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.4 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Left fielder Eddie Rosario and first baseman Joe Mauer continue to lead Minnesota’s hitters. Rosario is slashing .288/.323/.479 with 24 home runs, 77 RBIs and 87 runs scored. Mauer is hitting .274/.344/.376 with six homers, 45 RBIs and 52 runs scored.

The Twins have lost 8.2 units and are 20-22 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in 19 of those games, compared to 22 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Tigers have lost 10.8 units and are 56-56 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 44 of those games, as opposed to 61 which went under the total.

Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Tigers, ATS Winner – Tigers, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • Minnesota has recorded 16 extra-base hits over its last five games. Detroit has 12 XBH over its last five.
  • The Twins have hit nine home runs in their last 10 games, including seven over their last five.
  • Detroit has averaged 16.9 runs + hits + errors over its last 10 outings and 17.2 over its last five.