Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets ATS Prediction

Jose VasquezArticles, Basketball, NBA

The Minnesota Timberwolves (1-3), 12-point underdogs, will try to extend the series when they travel to Toyota Center to go head-to-head against the Houston Rockets (3-1) in game five of the First Round of the Western Conference Playoffs. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 216 points and it will air on ATTSN Southwest at 9:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, April 25, 2018.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets ATS Odds

In game four, Harden led the Rockets to a 119-100 win. He scored a game-high 36 points. The two teams combined to score 219 points, which was just over the projected point total of 217, and Houston covered as a 6-point favorite. The Rockets’ 5.5 turnover percentage was their largest strength over the Timberwolves, who had a mark of 14.5.

The high-octane offense of Houston (first in the league with an offensive efficiency of 112.8) will square off against the porous defense of Minnesota (24th in the league with a defensive efficiency of 109.0). The Rockets should have the advantage on that end of the court. Moreover, the Timberwolves are among the NBA’s elite on the offensive backboards, ranking fourth in offensive rebounding percentage (24.3 percent). The Rockets, however, rank fourth at securing defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 79.8 percent.

Of the Timberwolves’ 86 games, 47 have finished over the projected point total. Minnesota heads into the contest with records of 48-38 straight up (SU) and 40-43-3 against the spread (ATS).

Rockets games have a tendency to go under the total (57.0 percent). Further, Houston owns records of 68-18 SU and 43-41-2 ATS.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets ATS Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Timberwolves, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Timberwolves rank third in rebounds allowed per game (41.9) while the Rockets rank seventh (42.3).
  • Houston ranks first in three pointers attempted per game (42.4) while Minnesota ranks last (22.5).
  • The Timberwolves rank first in steals allowed per game (6.5) while the Rockets rank 10th (7.3).
  • Houston ranks fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.4) while Minnesota ranks 14th (4.7).
  • Minnesota averages 17.3 points off turnovers per game, which ranks sixth in the league. Houston ranks 11th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.5).
  • The Timberwolves rank fourth in points in the paint per game (49.2) while the Rockets rank 28th (40.9).
  • The Rockets rank 17th in fast break points per game (11.3) while the Timberwolves rank 25th (9.7).
  • Minnesota averages 13.4 second chance points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. Houston ranks ninth in second chance points allowed per game (11.8).
  • Minnesota ranks 17th in assists per game (22.7) while Houston ranks 27th (21.4).
  • In games where they allow under 100 points, Houston is 33-3 and Minnesota is 19-4.
  • When scoring above 100 points, the Rockets are 65-13 and the Timberwolves are 45-24.
  • Houston is 18-24-1 ATS at home, while Minnesota is 18-23-2 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone under in 24 of the Rockets’ 43 home games, while 22 of the Timberwolves’ 43 road games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Timberwolves are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Rockets are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Minnesota has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Houston has 3 unders and 2 overs.
  • The Timberwolves have been outscored by an average of 4.0 points in their last five games. For the season, Minnesota has defeated opponents by an average of 1.8 points.
  • During their last five games, the Rockets have scored an average of 102.6 points per game (9.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 100.0 points per game (3.7 below their season average).