Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins Free Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Minnesota Twins are trying to avoid losing their fourth consecutive game they play host to the Milwaukee Brewers at Target Field. The game gets underway 2:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports North is in line to broadcast this interleague matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins Odds

Minnesota (-115) is favored over Milwaukee (+105) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this afternoon’s game at 9 runs. Odds for wagering on the games total stand at -115 for the over and -105 for the under. You can also bet on the game’s runline with the odds coming in at Brewers +1.5 runs (-200) and Twins +-1.5 runs (+170).

The Brewers have gone 28-18 SU this year and are 27-18 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 11.4 units for moneyline gamblers over the early part of the year and 7.7 units ATS. Milwaukee has covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Twins, on the other hand, are 18-23 SU and 23-17 ATS. They’ve lost 4.2 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 3.1 units ATS. Minnesota has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Twins games have a 21-18-1 over/under record so far in 2018. The Brewers have been a decent under bet with a total record of 17-26-2.

Junior Guerra will get the start for Milwaukee. The right-handed Guerra is 3-3 with a 3.08 ERA and 37 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Twins this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Twins will be sending righty Jake Odorizzi (3-2, 3.35 ERA) to the mound. Odorizzi has 45 strikeouts and 21 walks to his credit, as well as a 1.26 WHIP. Odorizzi did not record a start against the Brewers in 2017.

Minnesota’s pitching staff has given up 4.8 runs per game overall this year as a unit. The clubs starters have an ERA of 4.34, a WHIP of 1.35 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.0. The bullpen has a 4.82 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 9.1 K/9.

Minnesota’s offense has put up 4.2 runs per outing, including 3.8 per game over its last 10 games and 3.2 per game over its last five. The teams hit .226/.293/.340 over its last five games and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.

Left fielder Eddie Rosario and shortstop Eduardo Escobar have led the Twins batters so far. Rosario is slashing .294/.319/.544 with nine home runs, 27 RBIs and 28 runs scored, and Escobar is hitting .284 with seven homers, 21 RBIs and 24 runs scored.

Rosario performed well against righties at home last year, slashing .351/.402/.733 in 209 such plate appearances (compared to his overall season line of .290/.328/.507).

In the other dugout, Milwaukee’s pitchers have allowed 3.7 runs per game and its starters own a 4.12 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 7.18 K/9. The bullpen has an excellent ERA of just 2.58, along with a WHIP of 1.29.

Brewers hitters have slashed .245/.314/.405 on their way to 4.1 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.4 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 5.8 per game over the teams last five contests (4-1 SU).

Lorenzo Cain and Jesus Aguilar have led Milwaukee’s offense. Cain is slashing .271/.384/.432 with five home runs, 14 RBIs, 27 runs and 10 stolen bases, while Aguilar (.327/.391/.582) is up to six homers, 19 RBIs and 19 runs scored.

Maintaining a slash line of .309/.368/.606 across 106 plate appearances, Aguilar performed well against righties on the road last season (his total season line was .265/.331/.505).

The Brewers have gained 10.2 units and are 22-12 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 12 of those games, compared to 20 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Twins have lost 3.6 units and are 18-13 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 16 of those games, compared to 14 which went under the total.

Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Twins, ATS Winner – Brewers, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The Brewers have hit 16 home runs in their last 10 games, including 11 over their last five.
  • Milwaukee has posted 25.0 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 24.2 over its last five.
  • The Brewers have won five of their last six games SU while the Twins have lost five of their last six SU.