Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Free Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Milwaukee Brewers are ready to take on their divisional rival Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will broadcast the matchup. The first pitch will be at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds

Vegas has listed Cincinnati (-120) as the favorite over Milwaukee (+110). The total is sitting at 9.5 runs and bettors can take the over for -105 and the under for -115. Bettors can also wager on the games runline with the most recent odds sitting at Brewers +1.5 runs (-190) and Reds +-1.5 runs (+165).

The Brewers have gone 18-13 SU this year and are 17-13 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 4.5 units for moneyline bettors over the early portions of the season and 2.9 units ATS. The Reds, on the other hand, are 7-23 SU and 14-15 ATS. They’ve lost 13.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 6.3 units ATS.

Cincinnati games have had an over/under record of 14-15 so far in 2018. The Brewers have been a decent under bet with a total record of 11-19.

Southpaw Wade Miley is getting the start for Milwaukee. Miley is 0-0 with an ERA. He has yet to face the Reds this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-0, 1.13 ERA and 11 strikeouts across eight innings).

The Reds are handing the ball to righty Luis Castillo (1-3, 7.85 ERA), who’s got 24 strikeouts and 13 walks to his credit, as well as a 1.67 WHIP. Castillo is 1-0 with eight strikeouts and a 5.40 ERA across one starts against Milwaukee this year.

Milwaukee’s pitching staff allowed 3.6 runs per game and its starters own a 3.85 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 6.49 K/9. The bullpen has managed an excellent ERA of just 2.43, along with a WHIP of 1.30 and a K-per-9 of 10.80.

Brewers hitters have slashed .234/.306/.382 on their way to 3.9 runs scored per game this season, including 2.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.0 per game over the teams last five contests (2-3 SU).

Milwaukee’s hitters have been led by Lorenzo Cain and Eric Thames, who’ve collectively blasted 11 home runs. Cain is slashing .279/.392/.462 with four home runs, 10 RBIs, 18 runs and eight stolen bases, while Thames is hitting .250 with seven homers, 13 RBIs and 11 runs scored.

For the home team, Cincinnati’s pitchers have given up 5.6 runs per game overall in 2018. The teams starting pitching staff has an ERA of 5.60, a WHIP of 1.48 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 6.9. The bullpen has a 5.06 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 8.4 K/9. In 17 divisional games, Reds starters have an ERA of 6.23 and the bullpens ERA is 4.78.

The Cincinnati hitters have produced 4.1 runs per contest, including 3.0 per game against divisional foes and 7.0 per game over their last five. The teams hit .315/.406/.516 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

First baseman Joey Votto and outfielder Jesse Winker have led the Reds hitters so far. Votto is slashing .269/.408/.404 with four home runs, 15 RBIs and 12 runs scored, and Winker’s line is .313/.420/.398 with 26 hits, nine RBIs and nine runs.

Winker didn’t perform particularly well at home in 2017. Across 67 plate appearances, he slashed .259/.358/.414 (compared to his overall season line of .298/.375/.529).

The Brewers have gained 3.5 units and are 13-8 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in seven of those games, as opposed to 14 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 1.8 units and are 2-2 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The overs hit in three of those games, compared to one that’ve cashed the under.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Free Preview

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds Free MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Brewers, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The over has cashed in just one of Milwaukee’s last seven games.
  • The Reds have lost three of their last four games SU.
  • Cincinnati has posted 27.0 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 30.2 over its last five.
  • The Brewers have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games. The Reds have hit 13 over their last 10.