Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Free Pick

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Christian Yelich and the Milwaukee Brewers will be taking on the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field in a Saturday night game. The game gets underway 8:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Arizona will broadcast this NL matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks Odds

Bookmakers have Arizona (-145) as the favorite over Milwaukee (+135). If you’re thinking the game’s total is going to go below 9 runs, then bookmakers are putting up -115 odds to play the under. Picking the over can return -105 odds. This game currently has a runline of Brewers +1.5 (-160) and Diamondbacks -1.5 (+140).

The Diamondbacks are 50-48 straight up (SU) and 56-41 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 3.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 12.2 units ATS. Arizona has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Brewers have gone 51-48 SU this year and are 44-54 against the spread. Overall, the team’s lost 5.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 13.9 units ATS. Milwaukee is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the under has hit in three of those seven.

Arizona games have an over/under record of 46-45-6 so far in 2019. Milwaukee has been a decent under bet with a total record of 43-51-4.

Gio Gonzalez will get the nod for the visiting Brewers. The southpaw Gonzalez is 2-1 with a 3.19 ERA and 26 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Diamondbacks this year and only made one start against them in 2018 (1-0, 1.29 ERA and eight strikeouts over seven innings).

The Diamondbacks will send righty Zack Greinke (10-4, 2.95 ERA) to the mound. Greinke has 114 strikeouts and 16 walks as well as a 0.95 WHIP. Greinke made two starts against the Brewers in 2018, posting a 0-1 record with a 3.75 ERA and 14 strikeouts.

Milwaukee’s pitching staff allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.67 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 8.52 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.55, along with a WHIP of 1.40 and a K/9 of 9.94.

Brewers hitters have slashed .249/.330/.451 on their way to 4.8 runs scored per game this season, including 5.4 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 6.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).

Right fielder Christian Yelich and second baseman Mike Moustakas continue to lead Milwaukee’s offense. Yelich is slashing .333/.434/.717 with 35 home runs, 75 RBIs, 73 runs and 23 stolen bases, while Moustakas is hitting .267 with 25 homers, 56 RBIs and 59 runs scored.

In the other dugout, Arizona’s pitching staff has given up 4.5 runs per game overall this season. The team’s starters have a 4.13 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.38 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 8.7 K/9.

Arizona’s hitters have produced 5.2 runs per outing, including 6.4 per game over its last 10 games and 8.2 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .309/.405/.530 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar have led the charge for the Diamondbacks’ hitters this year. Marte is slashing .316/.367/.571 with 21 home runs, 60 RBIs and 62 runs scored, and Escobar’s line is .291/.344/.554 with 22 homers, 77 RBIs and 63 runs scored.

The Brewers have lost 3.1 units and are 32-37 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 34 of those games, compared to 33 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks have netted 2.3 units and are 15-13 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 17 of those games, as opposed to eight that’ve cashed the under.

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Diamondbacks, ATS Winner – Brewers, O/U – UNDER

Betting Notes

  • The over has cashed in three of Milwaukee’s last seven outings.
  • The Diamondbacks have won three of their last four games SU.
  • Milwaukee has recorded 25.0 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 25.2 over its last five.
  • Both teams have hit 16 home runs over their last 10 outings.
  • The Brewers have a total OPS of .781 this season and an OPS of .783 when facing right-handed pitchers. The Diamondbacks’ OPS sits at .779 overall and .751 against righties.