Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The struggling Philadelphia Phillies will try to avoid losing their fifth consecutive game as they play host to the Milwaukee Brewers at Citizens Bank Park. Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will be showing this NL matchup and the game gets underway at 1:35 p.m. ET.

Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Philadelphia (+100) is the home-team underdog to Milwaukee (-110) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this game at 9 runs (-120 for the over and +100 for the under). The games most recent runline odds stand at +135 for taking the Brewers -1.5 runs and -155 for the Phillies +1.5.

The Brewers are 39-25 SU and are 36-27 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 14.1 units for moneyline bettors and 7.2 units ATS. Milwaukee is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 32-30 SU and 28-33 ATS. The team has gained 2.6 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 10.8 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven.

Phillies games have had an over/under record of 26-31-4 so far in 2018. The Brewers have been a decent under bet with a total record of 24-37-2.

Right-hander Brandon Woodruff is the projected starter for the visiting Brewers. Woodruff is 2-0 with a 6.05 ERA and 20 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Phillies this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Phillies will turn to righty Zach Eflin (2-2, 3.74 ERA) to the mound. Eflin has 31 strikeouts and nine walks to his name, as well as a 1.28 WHIP. Eflin did not record a start against the Brewers in 2017.

As a unit, Philadelphia’s pitchers have given up 4.0 runs per game overall in 2018. The teams starters have a 3.70 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.84 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 9.3 K/9.

The Philadelphia offense is putting up 4.2 runs per contest, including 2.6 per game over its last 10 games and 4.2 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .212/.326/.339 over its last five contests and is 1-4 SU during that span.

Right fielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez have paced the Phillies batters this year. Herrera is hitting .293/.355/.444 with seven home runs, 32 RBIs and 27 runs scored, while Hernandez is batting .264 with seven homers, 21 RBIs, 42 runs and 10 stolen bases.

In the visiting dugout, Milwaukee’s pitching staff allowed 3.7 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.22 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 7.35 K/9. The bullpen has an outstanding ERA of just 2.54, along with a K/9 of 10.41.

The Brewers offense has slashed .249/.320/.413 on its way to 4.4 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.8 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 5.6 per game over the teams last five outings (2-3 SU).

Milwaukee’s offensive production been powered by outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, who collectively have blasted 15 home runs. Yelich is slashing .311/.378/.490 with eight home runs, 27 RBIs, 41 runs and seven stolen bases, while Cain (.281/.384/.429) is up to seven homers, 20 RBIs, 37 runs and 12 stolen bases.

The Brewers have gained 14.8 units and are 30-19 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 17 of those games, compared to 30 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have lost 0.6 units and are 20-24 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 19 of those games, compared to 22 which went under the total.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The Brewers have hit 15 home runs in their last 10 games. The Phillies have hit seven over their last 10.
  • Philadelphia has recorded 15.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 18.2 over its last five.
  • The Phillies have lost seven of their last eight games SU.