Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets Free Pick

The Milwaukee Brewers will be squaring off against the New York Mets at Citi Field. This NL matchup will get going at 1:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will broadcast the game.

Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets Odds

Milwaukee (+180) is hosting this one as the underdog to New York (-190) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this game at 7.5 runs. The odds for betting on the games total sit at -130 for the under and +110 for the over. Runline odds stand at -125 for betting the Brewers +1.5 runs and +105 for the Mets -1.5.

The Brewers are 8-7 SU and have gone 6-8 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 0.8 units for moneyline bettors in the seasons early going, but have lost 3.9 units ATS. Milwaukee has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Mets are 11-2 SU and 10-2 ATS. The teams gained 11.5 units for moneyline bettors and 10.1 units ATS. New York has covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.

Mets games have an over/under record of 6-6 so far in 2018. Brewers games have gone over seven times, gone under seven times and pushed on zero instances.

The Brewers have gained 1.8 units and are 4-5 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in five of those games, compared to four that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Mets have netted 8.1 units and are 7-2 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in five of those games, compared to four that went under.

The right-handed Jhoulys Chacin (0-1, 6.59 ERA) will get the nod for the visiting Brewers. Chacin started 32 games last year while finishing the season 13-10 overall with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. He made two starts against New York in 2017 and put together a 1-1 record against the Mets with a 13.50 ERA and five strikeouts.

The Mets have tabbed righty Noah Syndergaard (2-0, 3.94 ERA) as their starter. Syndergaard recorded 34 strikeouts in 30 innings last year (7 starts), while finishing the season 1-2 overall with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.

New York’s pitching staff has yielded 3.2 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. The clubs starting pitching staff has a 3.60 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has posted a solid ERA of just 1.62, a WHIP of 1.08 and a K/9 of 10.6.

The New York hitters have produced 4.8 runs per outing, including 4.6 per game over its last 10 games and 4.6 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .205/.291/.372 over its last five games and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.

Third baseman Todd Frazier and second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera have led the Mets offense this year. Frazier is hitting .293/.436/.537 with 12 hits, eight RBIs and eight runs scored, and Cabrera’s line is .321/.368/.566 with 17 hits, five RBIs and 12 runs.

Frazier didn’t do very well against righties at home in 2017. In 208 such plate appearances, he slashed .165/.308/.247 (his overall season line was .214/.345/.425).

In the visiting dugout, Milwaukee’s pitchers have allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.72 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 7.19 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 2.59, along with a WHIP of 1.39.

The Brewers offense has slashed .244/.302/.397 on its way to 3.6 runs scored per game in 2018, including 2.8 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 4.2 per game over the teams last five outings (3-2 SU).

Milwaukee’s hitters have been led by Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar. Thames is hitting .233/.327/.628 with 10 hits, five homers, seven RBIs and eight runs scored, while Aguilar is hitting .438/.550/.563 with seven hits, zero RBIs and three runs scored.

Compared to his overall season slash line of .265/.331/.505, Aguilar seemed to enjoy hitting righty pitching on the road last year, putting up a slash line of .309/.368/.606 across 106 such plate appearances.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Brewers, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • New York has recorded 18.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 17.4 over its last five.
  • The Brewers have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games, including nine over their last five.