Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds Free Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Milwaukee Brewers will head east to face their divisional rival Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. The action will get going at 7:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will showcase the game.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds

Oddsmakers have listed Cincinnati (+110) as the underdog to Milwaukee (-120). Gamblers can wager on the games total with odds sitting at -105 for over 9.5 runs and -115 for under 9.5. Bettors can also wager on the games spread with the runline odds coming in at Brewers -1.5 runs (+125) and Reds 1.5 runs (-145).

The Brewers have gone 16-13 SU this year and are 17-11 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 4.5 units for moneyline bettors in this young season and 5.5 units ATS. Milwaukee’s covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in six of those seven. The Reds, on the other hand, are 7-21 SU and 12-15 ATS. They’ve lost 14.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 8.3 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven.

Reds games have a 12-15 over/under record thus far in 2018. Brewers games have gone under 18 times, gone over 10 times and pushed on zero occasions.

Right-hander Jhoulys Chacin is projected to start for Milwaukee. Chacin is 2-1 with a 3.99 ERA and 19 strikeouts. He has yet to face Cincinnati this year, but he did make two starts against the team in 2017, posting a 1-1 record with a 4.85 ERA and nine strikeouts.

The Reds will put the ball in the left hand of Brandon Finnegan (0-2, 8.03 ERA, 2.19 WHIP), who’s got 10 strikeouts and nine walks this season. Finnegan only made one start against the Brewers in 2017 (0-0, 18.00 ERA across one inning).

As a unit, Cincinnati’s pitching staff has allowed 5.5 runs per game overall in 2018. The teams starting pitching staff has a 5.49 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.02 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 8.4 K/9. In 15 games against divisional foes, Reds starters have an ERA of 6.10 and the bullpens ERA is 4.65.

The Cincinnati hitters are putting up 4.0 runs per contest, including 2.7 per game against divisional foes and 6.4 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .309/.387/.505 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

The Reds hitters have been led by first baseman Joey Votto and left fielder Jesse Winker. Votto is hitting .273/.397/.414 with four home runs, 14 RBIs and nine runs scored, while Winker’s line is .299/.415/.377 with 23 hits, nine RBIs and eight runs scored.

Votto especially enjoyed batting against righty pitching at home in 2017. Across 253 such plate appearances, he slashed .347/.490/.648 (his total season line was .320/.453/.577).

In the other dugout, Milwaukee’s pitchers have allowed 3.5 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 6.60 K/9. The bullpen has an outstanding ERA of just 2.45, along with a K-per-9 of 10.55.

The Brewers offense has slashed .232/.304/.371 on its way to 3.7 runs scored per game in 2018, including 2.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 1.6 per game over the teams last five contests (1-4 SU).

Lorenzo Cain and Eric Thames have led Milwaukee’s hitters. Cain is hitting .292/.405/.458 with 28 hits, eight RBIs, 17 runs and seven steals, while Thames is hitting .250/.351/.625 with 16 hits, seven homers, 13 RBIs and 11 runs scored.

Compared to his total season slash line of .300/.363/.440, Cain enjoyed hitting against lefties on the road last year, putting up a slash line of .318/.400/.621 across 75 such plate appearances.

The Brewers have gained 0.0 units and are 4-4 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in three of those games, compared to five that’ve gone under against lefties. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 12.5 units and are 10-13 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in nine of those games, compared to 14 that went under the total.

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • Milwaukee has posted 17.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 10.4 over its last five.
  • The Brewers have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games. The Reds have hit 11 over their last 10.