Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies Matchup

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The Philadelphia Phillies will play host to the Milwaukee Brewers at Citizens Bank Park. NBC Sports Philadelphia will televise this NL matchup and the action gets underway at 1:05 p.m. ET.

Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Philadelphia (receiving -125 odds) is hosting this one as the favorite against Milwaukee and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this afternoon game at 8.5 runs (+105 for the under and -125 for the over). Runline odds stand at -180 for taking the Brewers +1.5 runs and +160 for the Phillies -1.5 runs.

The Phillies are 24-18 straight up (SU) and 22-19 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 3.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 1.9 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. On the other hand, the Brewers are 26-19 SU and have gone 22-22 ATS. In total, the club has gained 5.8 units for moneyline bettors in the season’s early going, but have lost 2.0 units ATS. Milwaukee has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in five of those seven.

Philadelphia games have an 18-23 over/under record so far in 2019. Brewers games have gone under 26 times, gone over 17 times and pushed on one occasion.

Zach Davies will get the nod for the visiting Brewers. The right-handed Davies is 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 31 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Phillies this year and did not record a start against them in 2018, either.

The Phillies will be sending righty Zach Eflin (5-3, 2.47 ERA) to the mound. Eflin has 38 strikeouts and seven walks to his credit, along with a WHIP of 1.02. Eflin made two starts against the Brewers in 2018, putting together a spotless 2-0 record with a 2.45 ERA and 15 strikeouts.

Philadelphia’s pitching staff has given up 4.2 runs per game overall this season as a unit. The team’s starters have an ERA of 3.97, a WHIP of 1.35 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.0. The bullpen has a 3.63 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 9.1 K/9.

Philadelphia’s hitters have produced 5.0 runs per outing, including 4.7 per game over its last 10 games and 4.6 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .246/.332/.333 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that span.

The Phillies’ hitters have been led by second baseman Cesar Hernandez and first baseman Rhys Hoskins. Hernandez is hitting .298/.368/.450 with four home runs, 17 RBIs and 22 runs scored, and Hoskins is batting .278 with 11 homers, 35 RBIs and 26 runs scored.

In the other dugout, Milwaukee’s pitching staff allowed 4.5 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.34 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 8.57 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.12, along with a WHIP of 1.41 and a K/9 of 9.83.

Brewers hitters have slashed .246/.331/.427 on their way to 4.8 runs scored per game in 2019, including 4.5 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.4 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Outfielders Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich have led Milwaukee’s offense. Cain is slashing .265/.325/.403 with four home runs, 18 RBIs, 29 runs and five steals, while Yelich (.333/.451/.716) has produced 16 homers, 38 RBIs, 36 runs and eight steals.

The Brewers have gained 3.1 units and are 13-17 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 13 of those games, compared to 16 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 6.8 units and are 19-14 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 14 of those games, as opposed to 19 that’ve cashed the under.

Brewers vs. Phillies Free Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Brewers, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The over has cashed in just two of Philadelphia’s last seven games.
  • The Brewers have hit nine home runs in their last 10 games. The Phillies have hit five over their last 10.
  • The Brewers have an OPS of .758 this season and an OPS of .744 against right-handed pitchers. The Phillies’ OPS stands at .743 overall and .742 versus righties.
  • Philadelphia has recorded 20.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 21.4 over its last five.