Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Miami Marlins will be taking on the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. This NL matchup starts at 1:35 p.m. ET and you can catch the game on both ATPT and FSFL.

Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates Odds

Oddsmakers are listing Miami (+195) as the underdog to Pittsburgh (-215). Bettors are able to gamble on the game’s total with odds listed at -130 for over 7.5 runs and +110 for under 7.5. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the runline odds sitting at -110 for the Marlins +1.5 runs and -110 for the Pirates -1.5 runs.

The Pirates are 71-71 straight up (SU) and 68-73 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 1.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 11.8 units (ATS). Pittsburgh has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Marlins have gone 56-86 SU this year and are 73-68 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 2.5 units for moneyline gamblers and 9.6 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in three of those seven.

Pirates games have had an over/under record of 62-69-10 in 2018. Miami has an over/under record of 70-66-5.

Jeff Brigham will get the start for the visiting Marlins. Brigham is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and two strikeouts. He has yet to face the Pirates this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Pirates are putting the ball in the hands of righty Trevor Williams (12-9, 3.15 ERA), who’s got 102 punchouts and 49 walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.18. Williams only made one start against the Marlins in 2017 (0-1, 11.57 ERA and three strikeouts across four and 2-third innings).

Miami’s pitching staff allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.43 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 7.67 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 5.28, along with a K/9 of 7.99.

The Marlins offense has slashed .240/.308/.361 on its way to 3.7 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.8 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 2.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Miami’s offensive production has been powered by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is hitting .288/.338/.412 with 11 home runs, 51 RBIs and 72 runs scored, while Anderson (.270/.356/.394) is up to 10 homers, 58 RBIs and 77 runs scored.

In the home-team dugout, Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has allowed 4.3 runs per game overall this year. The team’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.01, a WHIP of 1.27 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.4. The bullpen has a 3.96 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 9.7 K/9.

Pittsburgh’s offense is putting up 4.3 runs per contest, including 3.4 per game over its last 10 games and 5.0 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .285/.327/.481 over its last five matchups and is 5-0 SU during that stretch.

The Pirates’ offense has been led by outfielders Starling Marte and Corey Dickerson. Marte is hitting .278/.321/.455 with 18 home runs, 64 RBIs, 71 runs and 31 stolen bases, and Dickerson’s line is .290/.319/.451 with 11 homers, 46 RBIs and 56 runs.

The Marlins have gained 0.7 units and are 53-54 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over’s hit in 51 of those games, compared to 51 that’ve gone under against y starters.

Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Pirates, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The under has cashed in three of Miami’s last seven games.
  • The Marlins have lost three of their last four games SU.
  • Pittsburgh has posted 19 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 23 over its last five.
  • The Marlins have hit nine home runs in their last 10 games. The Pirates have hit seven over their last 10.