The Miami Marlins will head north to square off against their divisional nemesis Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Fox SportsNet Florida will be showing the matchup and the first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET.
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Odds
Philadelphia (-175) is the favorite against Miami (+165) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this game at 8.5 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total stand at -115 for the under and -105 for the over. Gamblers can also wager on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds coming in at Marlins +1.5 runs (-135) and Phillies -1.5 runs (+115).
The Marlins are 45-61 SU and are 58-51 against the spread (ATS). The team hasn’t moved the needle a whole lot this year, gaining 4.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline, despite having lost 5.0 units ATS. Miami is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 58-46 SU and 50-57 ATS. They’ve gained 10.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 15.2 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.
Philadelphia games have an over/under record of 47-55-5 in 2018. The Marlins have been a decent over bet with a total record of 57-50-2.
Jose Urena will get the start for the visiting Marlins. The right-handed Urena is 3-10 with a 4.40 ERA and 98 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with 10 strikeouts and a 4.91 ERA against Philadelphia this year (two starts).
The Phillies are putting the ball in the hands of righty Vince Velasquez (7-8, 4.02 ERA), who’s got 122 strikeouts and 42 walks to his credit, as well as a WHIP of 1.24. Velasquez is 1-0 with six strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA in one start against Miami this year.
Miami’s pitching staff allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 4.57 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 7.72 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.15, along with a WHIP of 1.33.
The Marlins offense has slashed .244/.313/.365 on its way to 3.8 runs scored per game this year, including 3.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).
Miami’s offense has been sparked by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is hitting .287/.336/.406 with eight home runs, 40 RBIs and 62 runs scored, while Anderson is hitting .283 with eight homers, 49 RBIs and 60 runs scored.
In the home-team dugout, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has allowed 4.2 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have a 3.85 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.94 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. In 39 games against NL East opponents, Phillies starters have an ERA of 3.54 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.37.
The Philadelphia offense has put up 4.5 runs per outing, including 4.0 per game against divisional foes and 5.8 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .242/.303/.510 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that span.
Right fielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez have led the Phillies’ offense this year. Herrera is slashing .273/.328/.464 with 19 home runs, 58 RBIs and 53 runs scored, and Hernandez’s line sits at .269/.374/.374 with eight homers, 35 RBIs, 66 runs and 14 stolen bases.
The Marlins have gained 6.7 units and are 40-39 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 41 of those games, as opposed to 36 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 7.3 units and are 37-45 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 36 of those games, compared to 42 that’ve gone under.
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER