Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Miami Marlins are set to square off against their division rival Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Fox SportsNet Florida will be airing the matchup. The game is slated to get underway at 6:05 p.m. ET.

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Vegas is listing Philadelphia (+130) as the underdog to Miami (-150). Gamblers can wager on the games total with odds sitting at -105 for over 8.5 runs and -115 for under 8.5. Bettors can also wager on the games runline with the most recent odds sitting at Marlins +1.5 runs (+145) and Phillies -1.5 runs (-155).

The Marlins are 2-5 SU and have gone 2-5 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 1.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline this year and 3.5 units ATS. The Phillies are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS. The team has lost 2.2 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 6.1 units ATS.

Phillies games have an over/under record of 2-3-1 so far in 2018. The Marlins have an over/under record of 3-4.

The Marlins have lost 0.1 units and are 1-2 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in one of those games, compared to two that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 1.0 units and are 1-0 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in zero of those games, compared to one which went under the total.

Dillon Peters (1-0, 0.00 ERA) will get the start for the visiting Marlins. The southpaw Peters started six games last year and finished the season 1-2 overall with a 5.17 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP. He made two starts against the Phillies in 2017 and put together a 0-0 record against them with a 1.38 ERA and 12 strikeouts.

The Phils will be turning to righty Vince Velasquez (0-1, 13.50 ERA), who struck out 68 hitters in 72 innings last year with 34 walks. Velasquez finished the season 2-7 overall with a 5.13 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. He recorded three starts against the Marlins a year ago and put up a 1-1 record with a 3.29 ERA and eight strikeouts.

Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 5.5 runs per game overall this year as a unit. The teams starters have a 3.81 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.92 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 7.0 K/9. In six games against divisional opponents, Phillies starters have an ERA of 3.81 and the bullpens ERA is 5.92.

The Philadelphia offense has put up 3.2 runs per outing so far this season and the team has hit .184/.285/.294 to begin the year.

The Phillies offense has been led by left fielder Rhys Hoskins and second baseman Cesar Hernandez. Hoskins is hitting .400/.500/.700 with eight hits, three RBIs and three runs scored, while Hernandez’s line is .304/.429/.478 with seven hits, one RBI and three runs.

Hernandez enjoyed batting against lefty pitching at home last year, slashing .352/.410/.577 across 78 such plate appearances (his overall season line was .296/.376/.425).

For the visitors, Miami’s pitching staff allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.93 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 8.83 K/9. The bullpen has logged a solid ERA of just 3.12, along with a WHIP of 1.56.

Marlins hitters have slashed .223/.309/.289 on their way to 3.3 runs scored per game in 2018, including over the teams last five contests (1-4 SU).

Miami’s offensive production been led by third baseman Brian Anderson and left fielder Derek Dietrich. Anderson is hitting .321/.457/.500 with nine hits, six RBIs and six runs scored, while Dietrich has a .281 average with nine hits, three RBIs and three runs scored.

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The Marlins went 8-11 SU against the Phillies last season.
  • The Marlins have lost four of their last five games SU,
  • The Marlins bullpen managed an ERA of 4.52 against the Phillies last year.