Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

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Starlin Castro and the Miami Marlins are traveling north to Citizens Bank Park to play their divisional nemesis Philadelphia Phillies. The matchup will begin at 7:05 p.m. ET and fans hoping to watch it can tune in to NBC Sports Philadelphia.

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Bookmakers have Miami (+180) as the underdog to Philadelphia (-190). If you’re thinking the game’s total is going to go below 8 runs, then Vegas is teeing up -125 odds for the under. Taking the over will give you +105 odds. There’s a runline of Marlins +1.5 (-125) and Phillies -1.5 (+105) for this matchup.

The Phillies are 13-11 straight up (SU) and 10-13 against the spread (ATS). The team’s lost 0.9 units for moneyline bettors and 4.5 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread just twice in its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. The Marlins have gone 7-17 SU this year and are 10-13 against the spread. In total, the club has lost 4.9 units for bettors taking the moneyline through the early portions of the season and 5.8 units ATS. Miami is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven.

Philadelphia games have a 13-10 over/under record so far in 2019. The Marlins have an over/under record of 10-12-1.

Caleb Smith is getting the nod for the visiting Marlins. The left-handed Smith is 2-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 29 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with six strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Philadelphia this year.

The Phillies are putting the ball in the hands of righty Aaron Nola (2-0, 6.84 ERA), who has 28 punchouts and 12 walks as well as a 1.68 WHIP. Nola hasn’t faced the Marlins yet this year, but he made three starts against them in 2018, putting together a 1-1 record with a 1.86 ERA and 14 strikeouts.

Miami’s pitchers have allowed 4.8 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.20 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 8.66 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 5.05, along with a K/9 of 10.54.

The Marlins offense has slashed .215/.278/.328 on its way to 2.7 runs scored per game this season, including 3.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.4 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson have led Miami’s offense. Castro is slashing .247/.300/.323 with 23 hits, six RBIs and eight runs scored, while Anderson has a .244 average with 21 hits, two homers, four RBIs and five runs scored.

In the other dugout, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has allowed 4.9 runs per game overall this season. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.60, a WHIP of 1.44 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.2. The bullpen has a 4.12 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. In 17 games against divisional opponents, Phillies starters have an ERA of 4.97 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.08.

The Philadelphia offense is putting up 5.1 runs per contest, including 5.6 per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .228/.291/.365 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that span.

The Phillies’ offense has been led by first baseman Rhys Hoskins and catcher J.T. Realmuto. Hoskins is slashing .273/.402/.580 with seven home runs, 20 RBIs and 18 runs scored, and Realmuto’s line is .282/.351/.435 with three homers, 17 RBIs and 15 runs.

The Marlins have lost 0.1 units and are 7-9 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in six of those games, compared to nine that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have lost 2.6 units and are 1-3 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in two of those games, as opposed to two that’ve cashed the under.

Marlins at Phillies MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • Miami has recorded 11 extra-base hits over its last five games. Philadelphia has 14 XBH over its last five.
  • Miami fielders have three errors over the last five contests, compared to six errors for Philadelphia over its last five.
  • The Marlins have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games. The Phillies have hit 11 over their last 10.
  • The Marlins have a team OPS of .607 this season and an OPS of .601 against right-handed pitchers. The Phillies’ OPS sits at .768 overall and .767 versus righties.