Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Free Pick

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The New York Mets will square off against the Miami Marlins at Citi Field. SportsNet New York will televise the matchup and the game gets going at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Odds

Vegas has listed New York (-150) as the favorite over Miami (+140). The total sits at eight runs and bettors can take the over for -125 and the under for +105. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the odds standing at -155 for the Marlins +1.5 runs and +135 for the Mets -1.5.

The Mets are 65-77 straight up (SU) and 69-71 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 12.7 units for moneyline bettors and 8.6 units (ATS). New York has covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the under has hit in three of those seven. On the other hand, the Marlins have gone 56-86 SU this year and are 73-69 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 3.5 units for gamblers taking the moneyline and 11.1 units ATS. Miami is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven.

Mets games have an over/under record of 62-70-8 in 2018. Marlins games have gone over 70 times, gone under 67 times and pushed on five occasions.

Jeff Brigham is projected to start for Miami. Brigham is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and two strikeouts. He has yet to face the Mets this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Mets will turn to righty Jacob deGrom (8-8, 1.68 ERA), who has 230 strikeouts and 42 walks to his name as well as a 0.96 WHIP. deGrom is 0-1 with 22 strikeouts and a 3.32 ERA across three starts against Miami this year.

New York’s pitching staff has given up 4.5 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. Its starters have a 3.79 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.97 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 8.4 K/9. In 59 divisional games, Mets starters have an ERA of 3.70 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.97.

The New York offense is putting up 4.2 runs per outing, including 4.0 per game against divisional foes and 6.0 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .272/.340/.486 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that span.

The Mets’ batters have been led by shortstop Amed Rosario and right fielder Michael Conforto. Rosario is slashing .256/.298/.386 with seven home runs, 43 RBIs, 66 runs and 18 steals, while Conforto is hitting .233 with 23 homers, 63 RBIs and 66 runs scored.

In the visiting dugout, Miami’s pitching staff allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 4.43 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 7.67 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.28, along with a WHIP of 1.30 and a K/9 of 7.99.

Marlins hitters have slashed .240/.308/.361 on their way to 3.7 runs scored per game this year, including 3.5 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Miami’s hitters have been paced by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is slashing .288/.338/.412 with 11 home runs, 51 RBIs and 72 runs scored. Anderson is hitting .270/.356/.394 with 10 homers, 58 RBIs and 77 runs scored.

Miami Marlins at New York Mets MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The over has hit in just two of Miami’s last seven outings.
  • The Marlins have hit nine home runs in their last 10 games. The Mets have hit 10 over their last 10.
  • Miami has recorded 20.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 15.8 over its last five.
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