Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Miami Marlins will be taking on their divisional rival New York Mets at Citi Field. Pix11 will televise the action and the game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Odds

New York (-175) is favored against Miami (+165) and Vegas has the Over/Under for this night game at 7.5 runs (-115 for the under and -105 for the over). You can also bet on the game’s spread with the current runline odds standing at -135 for the Marlins +1.5 runs and +115 for the Mets -1.5 runs.

The Marlins are 63-96 SU and have gone 81-77 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 4.6 units for gamblers taking the moneyline and 12.4 units ATS. The Mets, on the other hand, are 75-85 SU and 80-78 ATS. The team has lost 9.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 5.3 units ATS.

Mets games have an over/under record of 69-80-9 in 2018. Miami has an over/under record of 79-74-5.

Trevor Richards is projected to start for Miami. Richards is 4-9 with a 4.66 ERA and 122 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with two strikeouts and a 7.20 ERA against New York this year.

The Mets will send lefty Steven Matz (5-11, 4.14 ERA) to the mound. Matz has 144 strikeouts and 57 walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.27. Matz is 1-0 with 10 strikeouts and a 2.31 ERA over two starts against Miami this year.

As a unit, New York’s pitching staff has allowed 4.4 runs per game overall this year. The club’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 3.60, a WHIP of 1.19 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.2. The bullpen has a 5.02 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 8.5 K/9. In 74 games against NL East opponents, Mets starters have an ERA of 3.40 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.06.

The New York offense is putting up 4.2 runs per outing, including 4.1 per game against divisional foes and 3.8 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .228/.351/.373 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

Shortstop Amed Rosario and right fielder Michael Conforto have led the Mets’ hitters this year. Rosario is slashing .257/.296/.383 with nine home runs, 51 RBIs, 76 runs and 22 stolen bases, and Conforto’s line is .243/.351/.451 with 28 homers, 82 RBIs and 77 runs scored.

For the visitors, Miami’s pitching staff allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 4.40 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 7.60 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.39, along with a K/9 of 7.95.

Marlins hitters have slashed .239/.306/.359 on their way to 3.7 runs scored per game this year, including 3.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson continue to lead Miami’s hitters. Castro is slashing .278/.329/.399 with 12 home runs, 54 RBIs and 76 runs scored, while Anderson (.275/.359/.403) has produced 11 homers, 65 RBIs and 87 runs scored.

The Marlins have lost 6.2 units and are 21-16 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over’s hit in 19 of those games, compared to 18 that’ve gone under against -handed starting pitchers.

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The under has hit in four of New York’s last seven games.
  • Miami fielders have committed three errors over their last five games, compared to six errors for New York over its last five.
  • The Marlins have hit six home runs in their last 10 games. The Mets have hit seven over their last 10.