Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Miami Marlins will head north to take on their division rival New York Mets at Citi Field. SportsNet New York will televise the action and the game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Odds

Vegas has listed New York (-155) as the favorite over Miami (+145). The total sits at 8.5 runs and bettors can wager on the over for -115 and the under for -105. Gamblers can also bet on the games spread with the most recent runline odds coming in at Marlins +1.5 runs (-150) and Mets +-1.5 runs (+130).

The Mets are 23-19 SU and 19-22 ATS. The team has gained 1.1 units for moneyline bettors while earning 2.9 units against the spread (ATS). The Marlins have gone 17-29 SU this year and are 23-22 ATS. Overall, the teams lost 0.5 units for gamblers taking the moneyline through the early part of the year and 3.0 units ATS.

Mets games have had an over/under record of 20-20-1 so far in 2018. Miami has an over/under record of 22-23.

Elieser Hernandez will get the start for Miami. Hernandez is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA and three strikeouts. He has yet to face the Mets this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Mets are going with lefty Jason Vargas (0-3, 13.86 ERA), who’s got nine strikeouts and seven walks to his name, as well as a 2.68 WHIP. Vargas did not record a start against the Marlins in 2017.

New York’s pitchers have allowed 4.5 runs per game overall this season as a unit. The teams starters have a 4.38 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.80 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 9.2 K/9. In 19 divisional games, Mets starters have an ERA of 3.65 and the bullpens ERA is 4.79.

New York’s offense has put up 4.2 runs per outing, including 4.1 per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over its last five. The teams hit .267/.328/.467 over its last five contests and is 4-1 SU during that span.

The Mets offense has been led by second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and outfielder Brandon Nimmo. Cabrera is slashing .321/.368/.547 with seven home runs, 26 RBIs and 25 runs scored, while Nimmo’s line is .268/.435/.465 with 19 hits, five RBIs and 15 runs scored.

Cabrera didn’t seem to enjoy batting at home last season, slashing .245/.315/.366 across 241 plate appearances (compared to his overall season line of .280/.351/.434).

In the other dugout, Miami’s pitching staff allowed 5.4 runs per game and its starters own a 4.63 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 7.71 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 5.86, along with a WHIP of 1.34 and a K-per-9 of 9.23.

The Marlins offense has slashed .230/.301/.345 on its way to 3.5 runs scored per game this year, including 3.4 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over the teams last five outings (2-3 SU).

Miami’s hitters have been powered by first baseman Justin Bour and catcher J.T. Realmuto, who have combined to swat 15 home runs. Bour is hitting .248/.401/.481 with nine home runs, 23 RBIs and 17 runs scored, while Realmuto is hitting .311/.377/.563 with six homers, 13 RBIs and 17 runs scored.

Compared to his overall season slash line of .278/.332/.451, Realmuto enjoyed hitting on the road last year, putting up a slash line of .323/.369/.543 across 314 plate appearances.

The Marlins have lost 0.4 units and are 7-5 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over’s hit in seven of those games, compared to five that’ve hit the under against y starters.

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – UNDER

Betting Trends

  • The over has hit in three of New York’s last seven games.
  • The Marlins have lost three of their last four games SU.
  • Miami has posted 20.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 18.8 over its last five.
  • The Marlins have hit nine home runs in their last 10 games, including five over their last five.