Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins will be taking on their division rival New York Mets at Citi Field. The action will get underway at 7:10 p.m. ET and Pix11 will televise the game.

Miami Marlins at New York Mets Odds

Oddsmakers are listing New York (-190) as the favorite over Miami (+180). The total is sitting at 7 runs and bettors can take the over for -115 or the under for -105. Gamblers can also bet on the games runline with the most recent odds standing at -125 for the Marlins +1.5 runs and +105 for the Mets -1.5.

The Mets are 24-20 SU and 21-22 ATS. They’ve gained 3.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 0.2 units against the spread (ATS). New York has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Marlins are 18-30 SU and have gone 24-23 ATS. In total, the teams lost 2.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline over the early portions of the year and 3.8 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Neither side has been a strong over/under play this year. New York games have had an over/under record of 20-22-1 so far in 2018. The Marlins have an over/under record of 23-24.

Dan Straily will get the nod for the visiting Marlins. The right-handed Straily is 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA and 14 strikeouts. He has yet to face New York this year, but he did make three starts against the Mets in 2017, putting together a 1-0 record against them with a 1.76 ERA and 17 strikeouts.

The Mets will turn to righty Jacob deGrom (4-0, 1.75 ERA), who has 69 punchouts and 14 walks to his name as well as a WHIP of 1.01. deGrom is 0-0 with six strikeouts and a 6.00 ERA over one starts against Miami this year.

Miami’s pitchers have allowed 5.2 runs per game and its starters own a 4.48 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 7.75 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 5.69, along with a K/9 of 9.02.

The Marlins offense has slashed .229/.300/.344 on its way to 3.4 runs scored per game this year, including 3.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.4 per game over the teams last five contests (2-3 SU).

Second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson have led Miami’s offense. Castro is slashing .295/.335/.393 with 54 hits, 20 RBIs and 26 runs scored, while Anderson (.273/.357/.381) is up to 48 hits, 21 RBIs and 25 runs scored.

For the home team, New York’s pitching staff has allowed 4.4 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have a 4.22 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.75 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 9.1 K/9. In 21 games against NL East foes, Mets starters have an ERA of 3.38 and the bullpens ERA is 4.59.

New York’s offense is putting up 4.1 runs per outing, including 3.8 per game against divisional foes and 3.0 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .237/.304/.385 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that span.

The Mets offense has been led by second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and left fielder Yoenis Cespedes. Cabrera is slashing .317/.363/.539 with seven home runs, 27 RBIs and 25 runs scored, while Cespedes has produced a line of .255/.316/.474 with eight homers, 28 RBIs and 18 runs.

Compared to his overall season slash line of .280/.351/.434, Cabrera seemed to take a step back when hitting at home last season, slashing .245/.315/.366 over 241 plate appearances.

The Marlins have lost 1.1 units and are 17-17 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 16 of those games, compared to 18 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Mets have netted 2.2 units and are 14-17 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in 14 of those games, compared to 16 that’ve gone under.

Miami Marlins at New York Mets Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – UNDER

Betting Trends

  • New York has recorded 19.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 17.8 over its last five.
  • The Marlins have hit seven home runs in their last 10 games, including four over their last five.