Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds Matchup

Victor TrejosArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Cincinnati Reds will face the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Fox SportsNet Florida will be airing this NL showdown and the game gets going at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins Odds

Oddsmakers have listed Miami (+120) as the underdog to Cincinnati (-130). The total stands at 7.5 runs and bettors can take either the over or the under for -110. Runline odds stand at +115 for betting the Reds -1.5 runs and -135 for the Marlins +1.5.

The Marlins are 78-73 against the spread (ATS), but just 59-93 straight up (SU). They’ve lost 3.9 units for moneyline bettors and 10.8 units (ATS). The Reds, on the other hand, are 66-88 SU and have gone 87-66 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 8.8 units for moneyline bettors, but have gained 6.8 units ATS.

Miami games have a 76-70-5 over/under record in 2018. The Reds have an over/under record of 76-72-5.

Right-hander Luis Castillo is the probable starter for the visiting Reds. Castillo is 10-12 with a 4.52 ERA and 160 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Marlins this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (1-0, 1.13 ERA and six strikeouts across eight innings).

The Marlins are putting the ball in the hands of lefty Wei-Yin Chen (6-11, 4.93 ERA), who has 102 strikeouts and 44 walks, as well as a 1.35 WHIP. Chen is 0-1 with two strikeouts and a 9.00 ERA in one start against Cincinnati this year.

Miami’s pitchers have allowed 5.1 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. The team’s starters have an ERA of 4.45, a WHIP of 1.31 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.7. The bullpen has a 5.41 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 8.0 K/9.

The Miami hitters are putting up 3.7 runs per outing, including 3.4 per game over its last 10 games and 4.4 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .226/.298/.341 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

Second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson have led the Marlins’ batters this year. Castro is hitting .282/.333/.407 with 12 home runs, 54 RBIs and 75 runs scored, and Anderson’s line is .268/.352/.391 with 10 homers, 59 RBIs and 81 runs.

In the visiting dugout, Cincinnati’s pitching staff allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 5.09 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 7.82 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.18, along with a K/9 of 7.94.

The Reds offense has slashed .257/.333/.405 on its way to 4.4 runs scored per game this year, including 2.5 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 1.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza continue to lead Cincinnati’s offense. Gennett is slashing .318/.367/.503 with 23 home runs, 92 RBIs and 85 runs scored, while Peraza (.290/.328/.419) is up to 13 homers, 56 RBIs, 84 runs and 23 steals.

The Reds have gained 4.3 units and are 29-17 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in 23 of those games, compared to 22 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Marlins have netted 1.3 units and are 57-58 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 57 of those games, compared to 53 that went under.

Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The under has cashed in three of Miami’s last seven games.
  • Miami has recorded 16.8 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 19.2 over its last five.
  • The Reds have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit eight over their last 10.