Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres Matchup

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Miami Marlins are traveling west to PETCO Park to face off against the San Diego Padres. Fox Sports San Diego is in line to broadcast this NL matchup. The opening pitch will be at 4:10 p.m. ET.

Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres Odds

Miami (-110) is favored over San Diego (+100) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this afternoon game at eight runs. Odds for betting on the games total sit at -120 for the under and +100 for the over. Bettors can also wager on the games runline with the current odds standing at Marlins -1.5 runs (+135) and Padres +1.5 runs (-155).

The Padres are 22-32 SU and 27-26 ATS. They’ve lost 2.3 units for moneyline bettors and 6.7 units against the spread (ATS). San Diego has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total went over in four of those seven. The Marlins have gone 19-33 SU this year and are 26-25 ATS. Overall, the teams lost 1.4 units for moneyline gamblers and 3.9 units ATS. Miami is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven.

San Diego games have a 24-27-2 over/under record so far in 2018. The Marlins have an over/under record of 24-27.

Left-hander Caleb Smith is projected to start for the visiting Marlins. Smith is 3-5 with a 3.83 ERA and 65 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Padres this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Padres will put the ball in the hands of Eric Lauer (1-2, 6.67 ERA), who’s got 25 strikeouts and 13 walks as well as a 1.93 WHIP. Lauer did not pitch in the majors last season.

Miami’s pitching staff allowed 5.2 runs per game and its starters own a 4.34 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 7.75 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 5.76, along with a WHIP of 1.29 and a K/9 of 8.80.

Marlins hitters have slashed .229/.301/.342 on their way to 3.4 runs scored per game this year, including 2.7 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 3.0 per game over the teams last five outings (2-3 SU).

Second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson have paced Miami’s offense. Castro is slashing .285/.326/.375 with 57 hits, 21 RBIs and 28 runs scored, while Anderson (.276/.359/.380) has produced 53 hits, 23 RBIs and 27 runs scored.

In the other dugout, San Diego’s pitching staff has given up 4.6 runs per game overall in 2018. The clubs starting pitching staff has a 4.90 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.24 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 9.2 K/9.

The San Diego hitters are putting up 3.7 runs per outing, including 3.6 per game over its last 10 games and 2.6 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .228/.265/.383 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

Left fielder Jose Pirela and first baseman Eric Hosmer have paced the Padres offense this year. Pirela is hitting .282/.336/.368 with 59 hits, 17 RBIs and 29 runs scored, while Hosmer’s line is .257/.352/.445 with six homers, 20 RBIs and 25 runs.

Hosmer did not do particularly well against lefties at home in 2017. Across 106 such plate appearances, he slashed .224/.274/.357 (his overall season line was .318/.385/.498).

The Marlins have lost 1.4 units and are 7-6 ATS when facing a -handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in seven of those games, compared to six that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Padres have netted 0.6 units and are 7-10 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The overs hit in 10 of those games, as opposed to seven that’ve gone under.

Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Padres, ATS Winner – Padres, O/U – UNDER

Betting Notes

  • San Diego has recorded 18.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 17.4 over its last five.
  • The Marlins have hit six home runs in their last 10 games. The Padres have hit nine over their last 10.