Miami Marlins at New York Mets Free Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Miami Marlins are ready to take on their divisional rival New York Mets at Citi Field. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET and SportsNet New York will be televising the matchup.

Miami Marlins at New York Mets Odds

Miami (+110) is the underdog to New York (-120) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this game at 8 runs (+110 for the over and -130 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the current runline odds sitting at Marlins +1.5 runs (-190) and Mets +-1.5 runs (+165).

The Marlins have gone just 17-30 SU this year and are 24-22 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 1.5 units for moneyline gamblers in this young season and 1.9 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Mets, on the other hand, are 24-19 SU and 20-22 ATS. They’ve gained 2.1 units for moneyline bettors while earning 1.8 units ATS. New York has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Neither team has been an obvious over/under play this season. Mets games have an over/under record of 20-21-1 so far in 2018. The Marlins have an over/under record of 23-23.

Caleb Smith is getting the nod for Miami. The left-handed Smith is 2-5 with a 4.22 ERA and 57 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with seven strikeouts and a 5.40 ERA against New York this year.

The Mets are putting the ball in the right hand of Zack Wheeler (2-3, 5.92 ERA), who has 38 strikeouts and 17 walks as well as a 1.55 WHIP. Wheeler is 1-0 with seven strikeouts and a 1.29 ERA in one start against Miami this year.

New York’s pitchers have yielded 4.3 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.29, a WHIP of 1.33 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.7. The bullpen has a 3.71 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 9.1 K/9. In 20 games against NL East opponents, Mets starters have an ERA of 3.48 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.54.

The New York offense is putting up 4.2 runs per contest, including 4.0 per game against divisional foes and 3.0 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .233/.287/.396 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that span.

Second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and outfielder Brandon Nimmo have led the Mets’ offense so far. Cabrera is slashing .325/.371/.552 with seven home runs, 27 RBIs and 25 runs scored, and Nimmo’s line sits at .253/.417/.440 with 19 hits, five RBIs and 15 runs.

Cabrera didn’t do very well against left-handed pitching at home last year, slashing .268/.288/.286 over 59 such plate appearances (his total season line was .280/.351/.434).

In the visiting dugout, Miami’s pitching staff allowed 5.3 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.57 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 7.67 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 5.76, along with a WHIP of 1.33.

The Marlins offense has slashed .229/.301/.343 on its way to 3.4 runs scored per game this year, including 3.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.4 per game over the team’s last five contests (1-4 SU).

First baseman Justin Bour and catcher J.T. Realmuto have led Miami’s offense. Bour is hitting .243/.398/.471 with nine home runs, 23 RBIs and 17 runs scored, while Realmuto (.299/.364/.542) has produced six homers, 13 RBIs and 17 runs scored.

Compared to his total season slash line of .278/.332/.451, Realmuto thrived batting against right-handed pitchers on the road in 2017, maintaining a slash line of .343/.377/.584 across 247 such plate appearances.

The Marlins have lost 1.1 units and are 17-17 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 16 of those games, compared to 18 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Mets have netted 0.9 units and are 7-5 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in six of those games, as opposed to six that’ve gone under.

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – UNDER

Betting Trends

  • The Marlins have lost four of their last five games SU.
  • The Miami defense has allowed eight errors over the last 10 games, compared to three errors for New York over its last 10.
  • The Marlins have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games. The Mets have hit 11 over their last 10.