Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers Free Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Miami Marlins will face the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will broadcast this NL matchup.

Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds

Miami (+180) is hosting this one as the underdog to Milwaukee (-190) and Vegas has the Over/Under for this one at 9.5 runs (-105 for the over and -115 for the under). The games most recent runline odds sit at -125 for taking the Marlins +1.5 runs and +105 for the Brewers -1.5.

The Marlins have gone only 5-15 SU this year and are 6-13 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 4.7 units for moneyline bettors in this young season and 8.9 units ATS. The Brewers, on the other hand, are 13-9 SU and 12-9 ATS. They’ve gained 3.5 units for moneyline bettors and 2.3 units ATS.

Milwaukee games have an over/under record of 9-12 thus far in 2018. The Marlins have an over/under record of 11-8.

Caleb Smith will get the start for the visiting Marlins. The southpaw Smith is 0-2 with a 6.89 ERA and 22 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Brewers this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Brewers are sending righty Junior Guerra (1-0, 0.82 ERA) to the mound. Guerra has 11 punchouts and five walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 0.91. Guerra only made one start against the Marlins in 2017 (0-1, 7.71 ERA and nine strikeouts across 4.2 innings).

As a unit, Milwaukee’s pitchers have allowed 4.0 runs per game overall in 2018. The clubs starters have an ERA of 4.12, a WHIP of 1.34 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.1. The bullpen has recorded a solid ERA of just 2.76, a WHIP of 1.13 and a K/9 of 10.5.

The Milwaukee offense has produced 4.1 runs per outing, including 4.9 per game over its last 10 games and 6.0 per game over its last five. The teams hit .297/.403/.544 over its last five matchups and is 5-0 SU during that stretch.

Eric Thames and Travis Shaw have led the Brewers hitters so far. Thames is hitting .254/.362/.661 with seven home runs, 13 RBIs and 11 runs scored, and Shaw’s line is .296/.387/.531 with four homers, 10 RBIs and 14 runs scored.

Thames did not seem to enjoy hitting against left-handed pitching at home in 2017, slashing .188/.304/.438 in 56 such plate appearances (his overall season line was .247/.359/.518).

For the visitors, Miami’s pitchers have allowed 6.2 runs per game and its starters own a 5.72 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 7.50 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.64, along with a WHIP of 1.54.

The Marlins offense has slashed .225/.299/.313 on its way to 3.4 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.5 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 3.6 per game over the teams last five contests (1-4 SU).

Third baseman Brian Anderson and first baseman Justin Bour have led Miami’s offense. Anderson is slashing .254/.391/.366 with 18 hits, 11 RBIs and nine runs scored, while Bour (.225/.304/.408) has produced 16 hits, four homers, 11 RBIs and seven runs scored.

The Marlins have lost 3.5 units and are 5-10 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in nine of those games, compared to six that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Brewers have netted 0.0 units and are 3-3 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over has hit in three of those games, compared to three that went under the total.

Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Brewers, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The under has hit in only two of Miami’s last seven games.
  • The Marlins have lost six of their last seven games SU.
  • Miami has posted 18.7 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 18.0 over its last five.
  • The Marlins have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games. The Brewers have hit 17 over their last 10.