Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Cincinnati Reds are playing host to the Miami Marlins at Great American Ball Park. The game gets underway 4:10 p.m. ET and Fox SportsNet Florida is in line to broadcast this NL matchup.

Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds

Miami (+115) is coming into this one as the underdog to Cincinnati (-125) and oddsmakers have the Over/Under for this game at 9 runs (-120 for the over and +100 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the games runline with the odds sitting at -180 for the Marlins +1.5 runs and +160 for the Reds -1.5.

The Marlins have gone 12-20 SU this year and are 15-16 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 1.1 units for moneyline bettors in the seasons early going and 3.7 units ATS. The Reds, on the other hand, are 8-25 SU and 16-16 ATS. The team has lost 14.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 5.2 units ATS.

Reds games have an over/under record of 15-17 so far in 2018. Miami has an over/under record of 14-17.

Dan Straily will get the start for Miami. The right-handed Straily is 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA. He has yet to face the Reds this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-1, 3.00 ERA and four strikeouts across six innings).

The Reds are turning to lefty Brandon Finnegan (0-2, 7.27 ERA), who has 12 punchouts and 12 walks to his name as well as a 2.02 WHIP. Finnegan did not record a start against the Marlins in 2017.

Cincinnati’s pitchers have allowed 5.4 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. Its starters have an ERA of 5.35, a WHIP of 1.45 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 6.9. The bullpen has a 4.96 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 8.5 K/9.

Cincinnati’s offense is putting up 3.9 runs per contest, including 4.8 per game over its last 10 games and 3.2 per game over its last five. The teams hit .213/.326/.342 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that span.

Eugenio Suarez has helped lead the Reds’ offense this year with four home runs, 20 RBIs and 10 runs scored. Suarez seemed to enjoy hitting right-handed pitchers at home last season. Over 229 such plate appearances, he slashed .279/.380/.604 (his total season line was .260/.367/.461).

For the visiting squad, Miami’s pitching staff allowed 4.8 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.23 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 8.07 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.81, along with a K-per-9 of 10.12.

The Marlins offense has slashed .224/.295/.329 on its way to 3.3 runs scored per game this season, including 3.5 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 3.4 per game over the teams last five outings (3-2 SU).

Miami’s offense has been led by Justin Bour, who is slashing .240/.342/.448 with six home runs, 15 RBIs and 10 runs scored.

The Marlins are coming off a 6-0 victory in the prior game of the series.

Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds Free MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The over has hit in four of Cincinnati’s last seven games.
  • Both teams have hit 11 home runs over their last 10 games.
  • Cincinnati has recorded 23.0 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 16.4 over its last five.