Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals Free Pick

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Starlin Castro and the Miami Marlins will square off against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium in a Wednesday night game. The opening pitch is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Midwest is in line to showcase this NL matchup.

Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals Odds

Sportsbooks have Miami (+160) as the underdog to St. Louis (-170). If you’re thinking the game’s total is going to go under 8.5 runs scored, then Vegas is offering -125 odds. Taking the over will return +105 odds. There’s a runline of Marlins +1.5 (-135) and Cardinals -1.5 (+115) for this matchup.

The Marlins are just 26-45 SU and are 32-38 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 6.2 units for gamblers taking the moneyline and 14.7 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the under has hit in three of those seven. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are 37-35 SU and 38-33 ATS. They’ve lost 3.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 4.3 units ATS. St. Louis has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven.

Cardinals games have had an over/under record of 32-34-5 so far in 2019. Miami has an over/under record of 32-35-3.

Right-hander Trevor Richards is the projected starter for the visiting Marlins. Richards (3-7, 3.68 ERA) has recorded 69 punchouts in 78.1 innings so far. He has yet to face St. Louis this year, but he made two starts against the team in 2018, putting together a 0-2 record with a 5.06 ERA and 11 strikeouts.

The Cardinals will put the ball in the right hand of Daniel Ponce de Leon (0-0, 2.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP), who has 10 punchouts and seven walks this season. Ponce de Leon did not re a start against the Marlins in 2018.

Miami’s pitchers have allowed 4.5 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.79 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 7.99 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 5.24, along with a WHIP of 1.22 and a K-per-9 of 9.46.

Marlins hitters have slashed .237/.298/.350 on their way to 3.5 runs scored per game this season, including 3.1 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 2.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson continue to lead Miami’s hitters. Castro is hitting .235/.264/.317 with five home runs, 29 RBIs and 20 runs scored. Anderson (.246/.332/.386) has produced eight homers, 30 RBIs and 24 runs scored.

In the home-team dugout, St. Louis’ pitching staff has yielded 4.5 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have an ERA of 4.36, a WHIP of 1.39 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.7. The bullpen has a 4.04 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 10.2 K/9.

The St. Louis offense is putting up 4.6 runs per contest, including 4.2 per game over its last 10 games and 5.0 per game over its last five. The team has hit .206/.287/.419 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

The Cardinals’ batters have been led by shortstop Paul DeJong and first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. DeJong is hitting .279/.369/.502 with 13 home runs, 34 RBIs and 50 runs scored, while Goldschmidt’s line is .255/.344/.421 with 13 homers, 29 RBIs and 42 runs.

The Marlins have lost 6.2 units and are 21-30 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 21 of those games, compared to 28 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Cardinals have lost 1.4 units and are 32-25 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 25 of those games, compared to 28 which went under the total.

Marlins vs. Cardinals Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Cardinals, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – UNDER

Betting Notes

  • The under has cashed in only two of St. Louis’ last seven games.
  • Miami has posted 20.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 20.4 over its last five.
  • The Marlins have hit six home runs in their last 10 games. The Cardinals have hit 11 over their last 10.
  • The Marlins have a total OPS of .648 this season and an OPS of .650 against right-handed pitchers. The Cardinals’ OPS sits at .728 overall and .736 versus righties.