Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates Free Pick

Jonathan GarosBaseball, MLB

The Miami Marlins are traveling north to PNC Park to square off against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The game will begin at 7:05 p.m. ET and this NL showdown will be televised on both ATPT and FSFL.

Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates Odds

Vegas is listing Miami (+170) as the underdog to Pittsburgh (-180). The total stands at eight runs and bettors can wager on the over for -120 or the under for +100. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the runline odds sitting at Marlins +1.5 runs (-130) and Pirates -1.5 runs (+110).

The Pirates are 69-71 straight up (SU) and 67-73 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 2.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 12.8 units (ATS). The Marlins are 56-84 SU and have gone 73-67 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 1.5 units for moneyline gamblers and 8.4 units ATS.

Pirates games have a 62-69-9 over/under record in 2018. Miami has an over/under record of 70-66-4.

The right-handed Dan Straily is the projected starter for Miami. Straily is 5-6 with a 4.13 ERA and 95 strikeouts. This is his first start against Pittsburgh this year. He did make two starts against the team in 2017, putting together a 0-1 record with a 6.75 ERA and eight strikeouts.

The Pirates are planning to start righty Chris Archer (4-7, 4.56 ERA), who has 131 strikeouts and 41 walks, as well as a 1.41 WHIP. Archer is 0-0 with 13 strikeouts and a 4.50 ERA in one start against Miami this year.

As a unit, Pittsburgh’s pitchers have allowed 4.3 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have an ERA of 4.04, a WHIP of 1.28 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.4. The bullpen has a 3.99 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 9.7 K/9.

Pittsburgh’s offense has put up 4.3 runs per outing, including 3.0 per game over its last 10 games and 3.8 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .236/.273/.350 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that span.

Outfielders Starling Marte and Corey Dickerson have led the way for the Pirates’ offense this year. Marte is hitting .278/.322/.456 with 18 home runs, 63 RBIs, 71 runs and 30 stolen bases, and Dickerson’s line is .290/.319/.451 with 11 homers, 46 RBIs and 55 runs.

In the other dugout, Miami’s pitchers have allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 4.42 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 7.64 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 5.27, along with a WHIP of 1.30.

The Marlins offense has slashed .241/.308/.362 on its way to 3.7 runs scored per game this year, including 3.7 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Miami’s hitters have been paced by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is slashing .286/.337/.409 with 11 home runs, 51 RBIs and 72 runs scored, while Anderson is slashing .271/.354/.396 with 10 homers, 58 RBIs and 76 runs scored.

The Marlins have gained 1.7 units and are 53-53 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in 51 of those games, as opposed to 51 that’ve hit the under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Pirates have netted 4.8 units and are 49-51 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 38 of those games, compared to 54 that’ve gone under.

Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Pirates, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes,

  • The under has cashed in five of Pittsburgh’s last seven games.
  • Miami has posted 19.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 17.6 over its last five.
  • The Marlins have hit nine home runs in their last 10 games. The Pirates have hit six over their last 10.