Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick

Jonathan GarosBaseball, MLB

The struggling Philadelphia Phillies are trying to avoid losing their sixth straight game when they play host to the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park. The opening pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET and Fox SportsNet Florida will broadcast the matchup.

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Vegas has listed Philadelphia (-170) as the favorite over Miami (+160). The total sits at 8.5 runs and bettors can take either the over or the under for -110. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the current odds coming in at Marlins +1.5 runs (-135) and Phillies -1.5 runs (+115).

The Marlins are 57-89 SU and have gone 74-70 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 2.2 units for moneyline gamblers and 11.1 units ATS. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 74-71 SU and 67-78 ATS. The team’s lost 1.8 units for moneyline bettors and 20.9 units ATS.

Philadelphia games have an over/under record of 64-75-6 in 2018. Miami has an over/under record of 72-67-5.

Southpaw Wei-Yin Chen is the projected starter for Miami. Chen (6-10, 4.72 ERA) has recorded 98 strikeouts in 118.1 innings so far. He’s 0-1 with eight strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA against Philadelphia this year.

The Phillies are sending righty Zach Eflin (9-7, 4.42 ERA) to the mound. Eflin has 107 strikeouts and 30 walks to his credit, as well as a 1.29 WHIP. Eflin is 1-0 with 10 strikeouts and a 2.57 ERA across two starts against Miami this year.

As a unit, Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 4.4 runs per game overall in 2018. The club’s starters have an ERA of 3.98, a WHIP of 1.24 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.0. The bullpen has a 3.96 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 9.2 K/9. In 63 games against divisional foes, Phillies starters have an ERA of 4.01 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.49.

The Philadelphia offense is putting up 4.2 runs per contest, including 4.1 per game against divisional foes and 3.4 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .257/.342/.404 over its last five contests and is 0-5 SU during that stretch.

The Phillies’ offense has been led by Cesar Hernandez, who is slashing .256/.361/.355 with 11 home runs, 49 RBIs, 83 runs and 18 stolen bases.

In the visiting dugout, Miami’s pitchers have allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 4.42 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 7.62 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.39, along with a WHIP of 1.30.

Marlins hitters have slashed .238/.306/.360 on their way to 3.7 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.5 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).

Starlin Castro has sparked Miami’s offense and is slashing .284/.334/.405 with 11 home runs, 51 RBIs and 72 runs scored.

The Phillies are coming off of a 5-1 loss against the Nationals, while the Marlins just lost a 5-2 game to the Mets.

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Free MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends,

  • The over has cashed in three of Miami’s last seven games.
  • The Marlins have hit seven home runs in their last 10 games, including four over their last five.
  • Miami has recorded 14.4 runs + hits + errors per game over its last 10 outings and 12.6 over its last five.
  • The Marlins have lost five of their last six games SU while the Phillies have lost six of their last seven.