Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Miami Marlins will be taking on their NL East foe Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The opening pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET and Fox SportsNet Florida will broadcast the matchup.

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Vegas has listed Philadelphia (-200) as the favorite over Miami (+185). The total is sitting at 8.5 runs and bettors can take the over for -115 and the under for -105. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds standing at -120 for the Marlins +1.5 runs and +100 for the Phillies -1.5 runs.

The Marlins are 57-91 SU and are 75-72 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 5.2 units for gamblers taking the moneyline and 12.8 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the total has gone under in three of those seven. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 76-71 SU and 68-78 ATS. The team has lost 0.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 19.8 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread only once in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.

Philadelphia games have a 65-75-6 over/under record in 2018. Miami has an over/under record of 73-69-5.

Right-hander Jose Urena is getting the nod for Miami. Urena (6-12, 4.29 ERA) has racked up 122 punchouts in 157.1 innings so far. He’s 1-2 with 20 strikeouts and a 5.09 ERA against Philadelphia this year (four starts).

The Phillies are handing the ball to righty Nick Pivetta (7-12, 4.64 ERA), who’s got 173 strikeouts and 46 walks to his credit, as well as a WHIP of 1.31. Pivetta is 1-1 with 20 strikeouts and a 2.30 ERA over three starts against Miami this year.

Miami’s pitching staff allowed 5.2 runs per game and its starters own a 4.45 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 7.62 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 5.48, along with a WHIP of 1.30.

The Marlins offense has slashed .238/.305/.359 on its way to 3.7 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.5 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (0-5 SU).

Miami’s hitters have been led by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is hitting .280/.331/.400 with 11 home runs, 51 RBIs and 72 runs scored, while Anderson is hitting .270 with 10 homers, 59 RBIs and 80 runs scored.

In the home-team dugout, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has given up 4.4 runs per game overall this season. The team’s starters have a 3.99 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.91 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 9.2 K/9. In 65 games against NL East opponents, Phillies starters have an ERA of 4.04 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.34.

The Philadelphia offense is putting up 4.3 runs per outing, including 4.3 per game against divisional foes and 5.4 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .262/.339/.471 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

The Phillies’ hitters have been led by second baseman Cesar Hernandez and right fielder Odubel Herrera. Hernandez is slashing .257/.360/.361 with 12 home runs, 52 RBIs, 85 runs and 18 steals, while Herrera’s line is .257/.314/.427 with 21 homers, 65 RBIs and 62 runs.

The Marlins have gained 0.0 units and are 54-57 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 54 of those games, compared to 52 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have lost 2.5 units and are 52-59 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 48 of those games, compared to 59 that went under the total.

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The over has hit in three of Miami’s last seven games.
  • The Marlins have lost seven of their last eight games SU.
  • Miami has posted 15.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 13.8 over its last five.
  • The Marlins have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games. The Phillies have hit 15 over their last 10.