Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Matchup

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The struggling Atlanta Braves are trying to avoid losing their fifth consecutive game as they play host to the Miami Marlins at SunTrust Park. The game gets underway 7:35 p.m. ET and Fox SportsNet Florida is in line to televise the matchup.

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Odds

Miami (+160) is the underdog against Atlanta (-170) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this game at 9 runs. The odds for betting on the games total sit at +100 for the under and -120 for the over. Bettors can also wager on the games runline with the most recent odds standing at -135 for the Marlins +1.5 runs and +115 for the Braves -1.5.

The Braves are 54-47 straight up (SU) and 53-49 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 13.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 0.5 units (ATS). Atlanta has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Marlins have gone 45-61 SU this year and are 58-50 ATS. In total, the teams gained 5.5 units for moneyline bettors, but have lost 3.6 units ATS. Miami is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.

Atlanta games have had an over/under record of 50-48-4 in 2018. Miami has been a decent over bet with a total record of 56-50-2.

Pablo Lopez will get the start for Miami. Lopez (2-2, 5.34 ERA) has racked up 23 strikeouts in 28.2 innings so far. He has yet to face the Braves this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Braves are turning to righty Mike Foltynewicz (7-7, 3.04 ERA), who’s got 133 strikeouts and 48 walks to his credit as well as a 1.19 WHIP. Foltynewicz is 1-0 with four strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA in one start against Miami this year.

As a unit, Atlanta’s pitchers have given up 4.2 runs per game overall this year. Its starting pitching staff has a 3.71 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.25 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. In 45 divisional games, Braves starters have an ERA of 3.11 and the bullpens ERA is 2.89.

The Atlanta offense is putting up 4.8 runs per contest, including 5.2 per game against divisional foes and 3.8 per game over its last five. The team has hit .229/.304/.380 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.

Right fielder Nick Markakis and first baseman Freddie Freeman have led the way for the Braves hitters this year. Markakis is slashing .316/.383/.475 with 10 home runs, 62 RBIs and 57 runs scored, and Freeman is hitting .313 with 17 homers, 66 RBIs and 62 runs.

In the visiting dugout, Miami’s pitchers have allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 4.57 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 7.72 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 5.15, along with a WHIP of 1.33 and a K-per-9 of 8.22.

Marlins hitters have slashed .244/.313/.365 on their way to 3.8 runs scored per game this year, including 3.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over the teams last five contests (2-3 SU).

Second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson continue to lead Miami’s offense. Castro is slashing .287/.336/.406 with eight home runs, 40 RBIs and 62 runs scored, while Anderson (.283/.363/.413) has produced eight homers, 49 RBIs and 60 runs scored.

The Marlins have gained 6.7 units and are 40-39 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The overs hit in 41 of those games, compared to 36 that’ve gone under against -handed starting pitchers.

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • Miami has logged eight extra-base hits over its last five outings. Atlanta has 15 XBH over its last five.
  • Each team has hit eight home runs over its last 10 games.
  • Atlanta has posted 19.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 19.0 over its last five.
  • The Braves have dropped five of their last six games SU.