Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Miami Marlins will make a road trip to Atlanta to play their divisional rival Braves at SunTrust Park. The matchup will get underway at 7:35 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to Fox SportsNet Florida to catch the game.

Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Odds

Oddsmakers are listing Miami (+150) as the underdog to Atlanta (-160). The total sits at 8.5 runs and bettors can take the over for -125 and the under for +105. Bettors can also wager on the games runline with the odds standing at Marlins +1.5 runs (-145) and Braves -1.5 runs (+125).

The Braves are 54-47 straight up (SU) and 51-49 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 11.1 units for moneyline bettors while earning 1.8 units (ATS). Atlanta has covered the spread just twice in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven. The Marlins have gone 45-61 SU this year and are 57-49 ATS. In total, the teams gained 5.1 units for moneyline gamblers, but have lost 3.2 units ATS. Miami is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven.

Atlanta games have an over/under record of 50-46-4 in 2018. Miami has been a decent over bet with a total record of 56-48-2.

Wei-Yin Chen will get the nod for the visiting Marlins. The southpaw Chen is 3-7 with a 5.65 ERA and 61 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with nine strikeouts and a 3.97 ERA against Atlanta this year (two starts).

The Braves are putting the ball in the right hand of Julio Teheran (7-7, 4.42 ERA, 1.25 WHIP), who has 101 strikeouts and 53 walks this season. Teheran is 0-1 with seven strikeouts and a 12.54 ERA over two starts against Miami this year.

As a unit, Atlanta’s pitchers have allowed 4.2 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have a 3.71 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.25 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. In 45 divisional games, Braves starters have an ERA of 3.11 and the bullpens ERA is 2.89.

The Atlanta offense is putting up 4.8 runs per contest, including 5.2 per game against divisional foes and 3.8 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .229/.304/.380 over its last five contests and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.

The Braves hitters have been led by right fielder Nick Markakis and first baseman Freddie Freeman. Markakis is hitting .316/.383/.475 with 10 home runs, 62 RBIs and 57 runs scored, and Freeman’s line is .313/.397/.527 with 17 homers, 66 RBIs and 62 runs.

In the other dugout, Miami’s pitching staff allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.57 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 7.72 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.15, along with a WHIP of 1.33.

Marlins hitters have slashed .244/.313/.365 on their way to 3.8 runs scored per game this year, including 3.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over the teams last five contests (2-3 SU).

Miami’s offense has been fueled by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is slashing .287/.336/.406 with eight home runs, 40 RBIs and 62 runs scored, while Anderson is hitting .283/.363/.413 with eight homers, 49 RBIs and 60 runs scored.

The Marlins have gained 6.3 units and are 39-38 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 41 of those games, compared to 34 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Braves have lost 0.2 units and are 13-18 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over has hit in 17 of those games, compared to 14 that went under the total.

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – UNDER

Betting Notes

  • Miami has recorded eight extra-base hits over its last five contests. Atlanta has 15 XBH over its last five.
  • The Braves have dropped five of their last six games SU.
  • Atlanta has recorded 19.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 19.0 over its last five.
  • Each team has hit eight home runs over its last 10 games.