Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Miami Marlins will be taking on their NL East nemesis Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park. Fox SportsNet Florida will televise the matchup and the first pitch is scheduled for 7:35 p.m. ET.

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Odds

Oddsmakers have listed Atlanta (-180) as the favorite over Miami (+170). Bettors are able to wager on the game’s total with odds posted at even money (+100) for over 8.5 runs and -120 for under 8.5. The game’s most recent runline odds stand at -130 for picking the Marlins +1.5 runs and +110 for the Braves -1.5 runs.

The Marlins have gone 48-73 SU this year and are 62-57 against the spread (ATS). The team hasn’t moved the needle much this year, losing 1.1 units for moneyline gamblers and 9.0 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Braves, on the other hand, are 66-51 SU and 59-55 ATS. The team has gained 18.6 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 0.3 units ATS. Atlanta has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.

Braves games have an over/under record of 56-53-5 in 2018. The Marlins have an over/under record of 59-56-4.

Trevor Richards will get the start for the visiting Marlins. Richards (3-7, 3.98 ERA) has recorded 85 punchouts in 86 innings so far. He has yet to face the Braves this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Braves will put the ball in the right hand of Anibal Sanchez (6-3, 2.83 ERA, 1.05 WHIP), who’s got 84 strikeouts and 26 walks. Sanchez did not record a start against the Marlins in 2017.

Miami’s pitching staff allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 4.59 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 7.73 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.11, along with a K/9 of 8.22.

Marlins hitters have slashed .240/.307/.358 on their way to 3.7 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).

Miami’s offense has been powered by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is slashing .281/.329/.396 with nine home runs, 43 RBIs and 65 runs scored, while Anderson has a .279 average with nine homers, 53 RBIs and 64 runs scored.

For the home team, Atlanta’s pitchers have given up 4.1 runs per game overall this season. The club’s starting pitching staff has a 3.59 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.14 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 9.1 K/9. In 57 games against divisional opponents, Braves starters have an ERA of 3.06 and the bullpen’s ERA is 2.98.

The Atlanta offense has produced 4.9 runs per outing, including 5.2 per game against divisional foes and 7.0 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .315/.382/.548 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.

Outfielder Nick Markakis and first baseman Freddie Freeman have paced the Braves’ batters this year. Markakis is hitting .325/.388/.507 with 14 home runs, 76 RBIs and 69 runs scored, while Freeman’s line sits at .319/.398/.530 with 19 homers, 74 RBIs and 73 runs.

The Marlins have gained 1.1 units and are 44-45 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over’s hit in 43 of those games, compared to 42 that’ve gone under against -handed starting pitchers.

Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Free MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – UNDER

Betting Trends

  • The over has hit in four of Atlanta’s last seven games.
  • The Marlins have lost six of their last seven games SU.
  • Miami has posted 14.8 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 15.4 over its last five.
  • The Marlins have hit six home runs in their last 10 games. The Braves have hit 17 over their last 10.