The Miami Heat (30-26) will try to put an end to the five-game winning streak of Toronto when they head to Air Canada Centre to challenge the Raptors (39-16). The games Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 207 points with Toronto opening as an 8-point favorite. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday, February 13, 2018, and it can be seen on CTV Sportsnet Toronto.
Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors ATS Preview
In the Heat’s last game, they defeated the Milwaukee Bucks, 91-85. With 12 points and 16 rebounds, Miami’s Hassan Whiteside had a solid game. The Heat, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 20.9, had a superb mark of 27.1, while the Bucks had a turnover percentage of 16.9 (above their season average of 12.4).
The Raptors hope to maintain momentum after blowing out the Charlotte Hornets in their last game, 123-103. Toronto rallied around DeMar DeRozan, who was the top scorer from either team with 25 points on 10-for-19 shooting. Toronto’s effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Charlotte. The Raptors had a rate of 0.667 (above their season average of 0.533), while the Hornets posted a mark of 0.483.
Toronto should be expected to protect the ball well in this contest. Toronto ranks fourth in the league at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.8 percent), while Miami forces the eighth-fewest turnovers (13.5 percent). Moreover, the Heat rank 25th in offensive efficiency (103.8), while the Raptors rank third in defensive efficiency (103.1).
Of Miami’s 56 games, 32 have finished under the O/U total, while 28 of Toronto’s 55 games have finished over the O/U total. Looking at straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records, the Raptors have a significant advantage. They are 39-16 SU and 31-24 ATS, while the Heat are 30-26 SU and 27-27-2 ATS.
Both teams have had a player trending in the right direction over their last five games. For the Heat, it’s been Josh Richardson, who has averaged 19.2 points, 3.8 assists and 1.2 steals, while the Raptors have received solid contributions from Fred VanVleet (11.8 points, 4.8 assists and 1.2 steals).
These teams have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined to score 179 points, well under the projected point total of 204.5. The Heat won 90-89, covering as 4-point underdogs. Miami had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (40.0 vs. 13.7). Toronto, meanwhile, had a much better turnover percentage (4.9 vs. 11.4). Goran Dragic recorded a double-double with 24 points and 12 rebounds.
Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors Odds Prediction
Prediction: SU Winner – Raptors, ATS Winner – Raptors, O/U – Under
- The Raptors rank eighth in steals per game (8.3) while the Heat rank 25th (7.0).
- Miami ranks first in assists allowed per game (20.0) while Toronto ranks 10th (22.0).
- Toronto ranks fifth in points in the paint per game (48.3) while Miami ranks 22nd (42.3).
- Toronto ranks fourth in three pointers attempted per game (32.3) while Miami ranks eighth (30.8).
- Toronto is 16-11 ATS at home, while Miami is 19-11 ATS on the road.
- Of the Heat’s 30 road games, they have 18 unders, 11 overs and 1 push.
- Of the Raptors 27 home games, they have 15 unders and 12 overs.
- Miami is 18-6 when they allow less than 100 points, while Toronto is 18-5.
- The Heat are 20-10 when they reach 100 points, while the Raptors are 36-9.
- The Raptors rank second in blocks per game (6.0) while the Heat rank 16th in blocks allowed per game (4.8).
- Toronto ranks fifth in fast break points per game (14.0) while Miami ranks 28th (7.5).
- The Heat rank sixth in second chance points allowed per game (11.1) while the Raptors rank 26th (13.4).
- The Heat rank fifth in rebounds allowed per game (41.8) while the Raptors rank 13th (42.5).
- Toronto ranks fourth in points off turnovers per game (18.4) while Miami ranks 23rd (15.0).
- Toronto is 5-0 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Miami is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Raptors average margin of victory in their last five games has been 21.0, up from 8.3 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 101.0 points per game (0.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 103.8 points per game (2.7 above their season average).