Miami Heat vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Prediction 03/18/19

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The Miami Heat (33-36) will travel to Chesapeake Energy Arena to challenge the Oklahoma City Thunder (42-28). The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, March 18, 2019, and will air on Fox Sports – Seattle.

Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder ATS Odds

The Heat come in on a high note after blowing out the Charlotte Hornets in their last game, 93-75, as 5-point underdogs. The Thunder, meanwhile, were thoroughly outplayed by the Golden State Warriors, 110-88, and were unable to cover as 2-point underdogs. The Miami game finished 52.5 points under the projected point total of 220.5, while the Oklahoma City game went 30 points under the projected point total of 228.

Miami played a nearly perfect game. They had a superb offensive rebounding percentage of 31.3 (above their season average of 25.6) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.471 (below their season average of 0.517). For those same stats, Charlotte was 21.6 and 0.355, respectively. Oklahoma City, meanwhile, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (27.4 vs. 18.6). Paul George had a solid outing for Oklahoma City with 29 points and 13 rebounds. Miami received a boost from Dwyane Wade, who put up 17 points and eight rebounds.

In their first matchup this year, George led the Thunder to a 118-102 win. He was the game’s top overall scorer with 43 points. The two teams combined to put up 220 points, which was just over the projected point total of 218.5, and Oklahoma City covered as a 3.5-point favorite. Oklahoma City’s 0.154 free throw rate was their biggest strength over Miami, who had a mark of 0.098.

Just over half of the Heat’s games have finished over the total. Miami heads into the game with records of 33-36 straight up (SU) and 35-32-1 against the spread (ATS).

Unlike Miami, a little over half of Thunder games have finished under the total. Additionally, Oklahoma City is 42-28 SU and 36-34 ATS.

It will be a showdown of contrasting styles as the fast-paced Thunder will look to push the slower-paced Heat. The Thunder currently rank second in possessions per game while the Heat are 27th. Additionally, the Heat rank 24th in offensive efficiency (105.5), while the Thunder rank fourth in defensive efficiency (104.7).

Heat at Thunder Free Pick

Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Thunder rank third in second chance points per game (15.2) while the Heat rank 15th in second chance points allowed per game (13.5).
  • Oklahoma City averages 19.7 points off turnovers per game, which ranks first in the NBA. Miami ranks 25th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.6).
  • The Thunder rank first in steals per game (9.7) while the Heat rank 17th in steals allowed per game (7.6).
  • Miami ranks second in points allowed in the paint per game (42.1) while Oklahoma City ranks 18th (49.2).
  • Miami ranks fifth in blocks per game (5.5) while Oklahoma City ranks 19th in blocks allowed per game (5.2).
  • The Thunder rank fifth in fast break points per game (18.2) while the Heat rank 29th (9.6).
  • The Heat rank third in assists allowed per game (22.9) while the Thunder rank 19th (24.8).
  • Oklahoma City averages 31.6 three pointers per game, which ranks 15th in the league. Miami ranks 19th in three pointers allowed per game (32.5).
  • Miami ranks third in rebounds allowed per game (43.2) while Oklahoma City ranks 23rd (45.9).
  • Miami is 19-3 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Oklahoma City is 10-0.
  • The Thunder are 38-21 when they reach 100 points, while the Heat are 29-19.
  • Miami is 21-11 ATS on the road, while Oklahoma City is 17-16 ATS at home.
  • Of the Heat’s 32 road games, they have 16 unders, 15 overs and 1 push.
  • The Thunder have 17 overs, 15 unders and 1 push in 33 home games.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Heat are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Thunder are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Miami has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Oklahoma City has 5 unders.
  • The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.4, up from 0.0 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 102.0 points per game (12.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 104.2 points per game (6.6 below their season average).