Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets ATS Odds

The Houston Rockets (32-12) will be at home in Toyota Center when they take on the Miami Heat (27-19). Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on Monday, January 22, 2018, and it can be seen on NBATV.

Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets ATS Preview

The Heat won a close one over the Charlotte Hornets in their last matchup, 106-105. With 16 points and 10 rebounds, Miami’s Kelly Olynyk put together a solid game. The Heat, who came into the game averaging an effective field goal percentage of 0.524, had a great mark of 0.569 and held the Hornets to an offensive rebounding percentage of 17.0 (below their season average of 22.8).

In the Rockets last matchup, they defeated the Golden State Warriors, 116-108. Houston rallied around Chris Paul, who was the games leading scorer with 33 points on 10-for-20 shooting. Houston dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a great offensive rebounding percentage of 29.3 (above their season average of 22.7) and a free throw rate of 0.230 (below their season average of 0.235). For those same stats, Golden State put up marks of 10.5 and 0.134, respectively.

The aggressive Houston offense looks poised to dominate from the charity stripe. The Rockets rank first in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.235, while Miami is among the NBA’s most foul-prone squads (giving up a 26th-ranked FTA rate of 0.218). Additionally, the Heat rank 26th in offensive rebounding percentage (20.1 percent), while the Rockets rank first in defensive rebounding percentage (81.5 percent).

Of Miami’s 46 games, 25 have finished under the O/U total, while 22 of Houston’s 44 games have finished under the projected point total. The Rockets have the better straight up (SU) record (32-12 vs. 27-19) and a narrow edge against the spread (ATS) (22-21-1 vs. 21-23-2).

Both teams have had a player heat up over their last five games. For the Heat, it’s been Josh Richardson, who has averaged 13.4 points, 4.0 assists and 1.8 steals, while the Rockets have gotten great contributions from Paul (24.8 points, 8.4 assists, 7.0 rebounds and 1.6 steals).

This is the first time these teams will go head-to-head this year. The Heat won both contests played against each other last season. In the most recent matchup, Miami won 117-109. Miami had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.601 vs. 0.489). Houston, on the other hand, did a fantastic job of converting from the charity stripe (24-31; 77.4 percent).

Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets Free Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Rockets, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat rank first in three pointers allowed per game (25.5) while the Rockets rank 14th (28.8).
  • Miami ranks sixth in blocks per game (5.2) while Houston ranks 18th in blocks allowed per game (5.1).
  • Houston ranks 14th in fast break points per game (11.2) while Miami ranks 27th (7.5).
  • Houston ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (40.9) while Miami ranks seventh (42.0).
  • Miami is 15-10 ATS on the road with 14 unders, 10 overs and 1 push.
  • At home, Houston is 10-12-1 ATS with 14 overs and 9 unders.
  • When allowing less than 100 points, Miami is 15-3 and Houston is 14-2.
  • The Rockets are 32-9 when they score more than 100 points, while the Heat are 20-7.
  • The Heat rank third in assists allowed per game (20.1) while the Rockets rank 16th (22.8).
  • Houston ranks third in steals per game (9.0) while Miami ranks 23rd (7.1).
  • The Rockets rank fifth in points off turnovers per game (18.2) while the Heat rank 23rd (15.0).
  • The Rockets rank 17th in second chance points per game (12.1) while the Heat rank 28th (10.1).
  • Miami ranks 14th in points allowed in the paint per game (43.6) while Houston ranks 28th (47.6).

Betting Trends:

  • Houston is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over in their last five games.
  • Over their last five games, Miami is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • The Rockets average margin of victory in their last five games has been 8.2, up from 7.8 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 103.0 points per game (1.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 101.0 points per game (0.9 below their season average).