Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies ATS Odds

Jose VasquezArticles, Basketball, NBA

The Memphis Grizzlies (8-18) will be at home in FedExForum when they meet the Miami Heat (12-13). Memphis is a 1.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 194 points. Action starts at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, December 11, 2017, and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Southeast.

Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies Free Preview

The Heat defeated the Brooklyn Nets in their last matchup, 101-89. With 20 points and seven rebounds, Goran Dragic played well for Miami. Miami dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a fantastically low turnover percentage of 4.9 (better than their season average of 14.8) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.511 (below their season average of 0.521). For those same stats, Brooklyn was 11.8 and 0.451, respectively. In the Grizzlies last game, they were beaten by the Oklahoma City Thunder, 102-101. Tyreke Evans was the top scorer from either team with 29 points on 13-for-24 shooting. Oklahoma City had a free throw rate of 0.196 (above their season average of 0.186). Memphis, on the other hand, held the Thunder to an effective field goal percentage of 0.457 (below the 0.514 mark opponents have averaged against Memphis this season). Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when two of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams go head-to-head. Memphis currently ranks 30th in possessions per game (95.5) and Miami is 21st (98.3). , Both of these teams have typically gone under the projected point total. Miami games have finished under 56.0 percent of the time, while games involving Memphis have finished under 61.5 percent of the time. The Heat have the sizable advantage straight up (SU) (12-13 vs. 8-18), but both teams have similar against the spread (ATS) records. Miami is 9-14-2 ATS, while Memphis is 9-16-1 ATS. Evans has been playing at a high level over the last five games for Memphis, averaging 18.4 points and 6.0 assists per game. This is the first time these teams will clash this year. Each won one of the two games played against each other last season. In the most recent game, the Grizzlies won 110-107. The Grizzlies dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a fantastic free throw rate of 0.370 and a ridiculously low turnover percentage of 6.4. For those same stats, the Heat were 0.198 and 8.9, respectively.

Miami Heat vs. Memphis Grizzlies ATS Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat average 5.0 blocks per game, which ranks 12th in the NBA. The Grizzlies rank 21st in blocks allowed per game (5.2).
  • Memphis ranks 21st in steals per game (7.3) while Miami ranks 23rd in steals allowed per game (8.4).
  • Miami ranks 24th in rebounds per game (41.6) while Memphis ranks 29th (39.0).
  • Memphis allows the third-fewest assists per game (20.2) while Miami ranks fourth (20.3).
  • Miami is 7-7 ATS on the road, while Memphis is 5-10 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone under in 9 of the Heat’s 14 road games, while 11 of the Grizzlies 15 home games have gone under.
  • In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Memphis is 6-4 and Miami is 8-3.
  • When reaching the century mark, the Grizzlies are 4-6 and the Heat are 9-5.
  • The Grizzlies rank 15th in points off turnovers per game (17.2) while the Heat rank 19th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.9).
  • Memphis ranks sixth in fast break points per game (14.2) while Miami ranks 28th (7.2).
  • The Heat rank fourth in three pointers attempted per game (32.4) while the Grizzlies rank 19th (27.2).
  • The Heat rank 28th in second chance points per game (9.6) while the Grizzlies rank 29th (9.1).
  • Memphis ranks fifth in points allowed in the paint per game (41.1) while Miami ranks 18th (44.6).

Bettings Trends:

  • Memphis is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in their last five games.
  • Over their last five games, Miami is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders, 1 over and 1 push.
  • The Grizzlies average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 4.6, up from 3.4 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 98.4 points per game (1.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 108.8 points per game (5.2 above their season average).