Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers ATS Prediction

Jose VasquezArticles, Basketball, NBA

The Miami Heat (39-34) will travel to Bankers Life Fieldhouse to take on the Indiana Pacers (42-31). The Pacers opened as 3.5-point favorites. The games Over/Under (O/U) opened at 207 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports Sun at 5 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 25, 2018.

Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers Betting Odds

In their last outing, the Pacers defeated the Los Angeles Clippers, 109-104, while the Heat fell to the Oklahoma City Thunder, 105-99.

The Pacers had a phenomenal offensive rebounding percentage of 34.1 (above their season average of 22.4) and had a turnover percentage of 8.3 (better than their season average of 12.1). Miami, on the other hand, had a better turnover percentage (9.5 vs. 10.0). Indiana’s Bojan Bogdanovic led the way, finishing with 28 points and five rebounds. Miami, meanwhile, was led by Goran Dragic, who put up 20 points and five assists.

Half-court execution will be critical when a pair of the leagues slowest-paced teams battle. Indiana ranks 23rd in possessions per game (98.1) and Miami is 24th (97.8).

A little over half of the Heat’s games have finished under the total. Miami holds records of 39-34 straight up (SU) and 38-31-4 against the spread (ATS).

Vegas has a tendency to place the total high when the Pacers are involved, as 44 of their 73 games have gone under the total. Moreover, Indiana is 42-31 SU and 41-32 ATS.

In the season series between these two teams, the Heat lead two games to one. In their most recent game, the two teams combined to score 220 points, well over the projected point total of 202.5. Miami won 114-106, covering as a 4-point underdog. Miami made 13 of its 30 three pointers (43.3 percent). Indiana, meanwhile, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (27.9 vs. 15.4). Hassan Whiteside put up a double-double in the victory with 16 points and 15 rebounds.

Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers Free Pick

Free Pick: SU Winner – Pacers, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • Indiana ranks fifth in fast break points per game (14.8) while Miami ranks 28th (8.7).
  • The Pacers rank second in points off turnovers per game (18.4) while the Heat rank 19th (16.2).
  • Indiana ranks third in steals per game (8.8) while Miami ranks 19th (7.5).
  • Indiana ranks 19th in second chance points per game (11.9) while Miami ranks 25th (11.0).
  • The Heat rank third in three pointers allowed per game (26.1) while the Pacers rank 23rd (30.5).
  • The Heat rank third in assists allowed per game (20.7) while the Pacers rank 12th (22.7).
  • Miami ranks sixth in blocks per game (5.2) while Indiana ranks 25th (4.2).
  • When holding opponents under 100 points, Miami is 23-6 and Indiana is 25-3.
  • In games where they score more than 100 points, the Pacers are 34-15 and the Heat are 28-16.
  • Indiana is 22-16 ATS at home, while Miami is 23-13-2 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone under in 20 of the Heat’s 38 road games, while 23 of the Pacers 38 home games have gone under.

Betting Trends:

  • The Heat are 3-1-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Pacers are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Miami has 2 overs, 2 unders and 1 push, while Indiana has 4 unders and 1 over.
  • During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 115.6 points per game (12.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 111.6 points per game (8.6 above their season average).
  • The Pacers have been outscored by an average of 0.6 points in their last five games. For the season, Indiana has defeated opponents by an average of 1.5 points.