Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks ATS Prediction

Jose VasquezArticles, Basketball, NBA

The Miami Heat (42-36), 8-point favorites, will be at Philips Arena to meet the Atlanta Hawks (22-56) in a Southeast Division matchup. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 205 points and it will air on Fox Sports Sun at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, April 4, 2018.

Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks ATS Odds

In the season series between these two teams, the Heat lead two games to one. In their most recent game, the two teams combined to put up 199 points, just under the projected point total of 202. Miami won 101-98, covering as 1.5-point favorites. The Heat’s 12.6 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over the Hawks, who had a rate of 13.7. Dragic put up a double-double in the victory with 22 points and 10 rebounds.

The inefficient offense of Atlanta (26th in the NBA with an offensive efficiency of 103.1) will face off against the top-notch defense of Miami (fifth in the league with a defensive efficiency of 104.5). The Heat figure to have the advantage on that end of the court.

Of the Heat’s 77 games with betting action, 39 have finished under the projected point total. Miami comes into the game with records of 42-36 straight up (SU) and 39-34-4 against the spread (ATS).

Just over half of Hawks games have also finished under the total. Further, Atlanta owns records of 22-56 SU and 36-39-2 ATS.

John Collins has really been playing well as of late for Atlanta, averaging 8.6 rebounds, 8.0 points and 1.4 blocks over the last five games.

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Odds Pick

Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Hawks, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Hawks rank 20th in fast break points per game (10.4) while the Heat rank 27th (9.1).
  • Miami ranks third in assists allowed per game (20.8) while Atlanta ranks last (26.1).
  • The Heat rank 12th in steals allowed per game (7.6) while the Hawks rank 27th (8.7).
  • Miami ranks 12th in points in the paint per game (44.6) while Atlanta ranks 26th (41.2).
  • Atlanta ranks 17th in second chance points per game (12.0) while Miami ranks 26th (10.9).
  • The Heat rank fourth in three pointers allowed per game (26.3) while the Hawks rank 26th (30.7).
  • The Heat rank 13th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.7) while the Hawks rank 25th (17.9).
  • Miami averages 43.2 rebounds per game, which ranks 19th in the league. Atlanta ranks 22nd in rebounds allowed per game (44.0).
  • Miami averages 5.3 blocks per game, which ranks sixth in the league. Atlanta ranks 26th in blocks allowed per game (5.4).
  • Miami is 26-6 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Atlanta is 11-4.
  • In games where they reach 100 points, the Hawks are 18-30 and the Heat are 30-18.
  • Atlanta is 19-20 ATS at home, while Miami is 23-14-2 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone under in 20 of the Heat’s 39 road games, while 19 of the Hawks’ 39 home games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Miami and Atlanta have both had 3 unders and 2 overs.
  • The Heat are 1-3-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Hawks are 1-4.
  • The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.2, up from 0.6 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Hawks have scored an average of 99.2 points per game (4.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 106.8 points per game (2.0 below their season average).