Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers Betting Prediction

Daniel GimenezBasketball, NBA

The Indiana Pacers (8-6) will be 4.5-point favorites at home in Bankers Life Fieldhouse when they clash with the Miami Heat (6-8). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 212 points and it will air on Fox Sports – Seattle at 7 p.m. ET on Friday, November 16, 2018.

Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers ATS Odds

The Heat defeated the Brooklyn Nets in their last game, 120-107, easily covering as 2-point favorites. The Pacers, meanwhile, were defeated by the Houston Rockets, 115-103, and failed to cover as 2.5-point underdogs. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Miami game went 13 points over the projected point total of 214, while the Indiana game finished 8 points over the projected point total of 210.

The Heat knocked down 20 of their 28 free throws (71.4 percent) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.588 (above their season average of 0.510). Indiana, on the other hand, had a better turnover percentage (12.7 vs. 14.6). Indiana’s Victor Oladipo had a good game, recording 22 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists. Meanwhile, Hassan Whiteside played a pivotal role for Miami with 14 points and 10 rebounds.

In their first matchup this year, Oladipo led the Pacers to a 110-102 win. He registered a double-double with 22 points and 10 assists. Indiana covered as a 2.5-point favorite and the two teams combined for 212 points, which was just over the projected point total of 207. The Pacers’ 16.4 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over the Heat, who had a rate of 20.0.

Matchups featuring the Heat tend to go over the total (78.6 percent). Miami comes into the contest with records of 6-8 straight up (SU) and 6-8 against the spread (ATS).

Unlike Miami, Pacers games have typically finished under the O/U total (57.1 percent). Further, Indiana owns records of 8-6 SU and 6-7-1 ATS.

The Heat’s Whiteside has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 15.2 points, 14.6 rebounds and 3.8 blocks per game. Meanwhile, Oladipo has averaged 27.0 points, 8.6 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 2.2 steals during that same time frame for the Pacers.

This has potential to be a mistake-prone game for the offense of Miami. Miami ranks 26th in the league in ball protection (turnover percentage of 15.3 percent), while the gambling defense of Indiana forces the third-most turnovers in the NBA (15.9 percent).

Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers ATS Pick

Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Pacers, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat rank third in assists allowed per game (21.8) while the Pacers rank eighth (22.4).
  • Indiana ranks second in second chance points allowed per game (10.9) while Miami ranks 28th (17.2).
  • The Heat average 6.9 blocks per game, which ranks first in the league. The Pacers rank 21st in blocks allowed per game (5.9).
  • Miami ranks 12th in three pointers attempted per game (32.9) while Indiana ranks 29th (24.6).
  • Indiana ranks first in points allowed in the paint per game (39.4) while Miami ranks seventh (45.3).
  • The Pacers rank third in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.1) while the Heat rank 27th (20.3).
  • The Pacers rank fifth in steals allowed per game (6.6) while the Heat rank 14th (7.6).
  • Miami ranks sixth in rebounds per game (47.4) while Indiana ranks 27th (40.3).
  • Indiana is 2-1 when they allow less than 100 points, while Miami is 2-0.
  • In games where they score more than 100 points, the Heat are 5-8 and the Pacers are 8-2.
  • Miami is 3-3 ATS on the road, while Indiana is 3-3 ATS at home.
  • The Heat have 5 overs and 1 under in 6 road games.
  • In 6 home games, the Pacers have 5 unders and 1 over.
  • Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Miami and Indiana are both 2-3 ATS.
  • The Heat have 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games, while the Pacers have 3 unders and 2 overs.
  • The Heat have been outscored by an average of 0.8 points in their last five games. On the season, Miami has defeated opponents by an average of 0.2 points.
  • During their last five games, the Pacers have scored an average of 100.6 points per game (5.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 103.2 points per game (0.2 above their season average).