The Indiana Pacers (8-6) will be 4.5-point favorites at home in Bankers Life Fieldhouse when they clash with the Miami Heat (6-8). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 212 points and it will air on Fox Sports – Seattle at 7 p.m. ET on Friday, November 16, 2018.
Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers ATS Odds
The Heat defeated the Brooklyn Nets in their last game, 120-107, easily covering as 2-point favorites. The Pacers, meanwhile, were defeated by the Houston Rockets, 115-103, and failed to cover as 2.5-point underdogs. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Miami game went 13 points over the projected point total of 214, while the Indiana game finished 8 points over the projected point total of 210.
The Heat knocked down 20 of their 28 free throws (71.4 percent) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.588 (above their season average of 0.510). Indiana, on the other hand, had a better turnover percentage (12.7 vs. 14.6). Indiana’s Victor Oladipo had a good game, recording 22 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists. Meanwhile, Hassan Whiteside played a pivotal role for Miami with 14 points and 10 rebounds.
In their first matchup this year, Oladipo led the Pacers to a 110-102 win. He registered a double-double with 22 points and 10 assists. Indiana covered as a 2.5-point favorite and the two teams combined for 212 points, which was just over the projected point total of 207. The Pacers’ 16.4 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over the Heat, who had a rate of 20.0.
Matchups featuring the Heat tend to go over the total (78.6 percent). Miami comes into the contest with records of 6-8 straight up (SU) and 6-8 against the spread (ATS).
Unlike Miami, Pacers games have typically finished under the O/U total (57.1 percent). Further, Indiana owns records of 8-6 SU and 6-7-1 ATS.
The Heat’s Whiteside has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 15.2 points, 14.6 rebounds and 3.8 blocks per game. Meanwhile, Oladipo has averaged 27.0 points, 8.6 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 2.2 steals during that same time frame for the Pacers.
This has potential to be a mistake-prone game for the offense of Miami. Miami ranks 26th in the league in ball protection (turnover percentage of 15.3 percent), while the gambling defense of Indiana forces the third-most turnovers in the NBA (15.9 percent).
Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers ATS Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Pacers, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over