Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ATS Prediction

The Oklahoma City Thunder (47-34) and Memphis Grizzlies (22-59) will square off at Chesapeake Energy Arena to kick off Western Conference play. Action begins at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, April 11, 2018, and it can be seen on Fox SportsNet Oklahoma.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

The Grizzlies lost big to the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last game, 113-94. With 18 points on 8-for-15 shooting, Ben McLemore was Memphis’ high scorer. Minnesota won the rebounding battle. The Timberwolves had more offensive rebounds (18 vs. 10), defensive rebounds (34 vs. 25) and total rebounds (52 vs. 35).

In the Thunder’s last game, they dismantled the Miami Heat, 115-93. Oklahoma City’s Russell Westbrook played a massive role in the victory, registering 23 points, 18 rebounds and 13 assists on his way to his 24th triple-double this season. Oklahoma City dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a fantastic free throw rate of 0.383 (above their season average of 0.194) and a turnover percentage of 8.4 (better than their season average of 12.0). For those same stats, Miami was 0.092 and 13.9, respectively.

Look for Oklahoma City to dominate the offensive glass in this contest. The Thunder rank first in offensive rebounding percentage (27.8 percent), while Memphis ranks 23rd in defensive rebounding percentage (76.4 percent). It could also be a mistake-prone game for the offense of the Grizzlies, which ranks 27th in ball protection (turnover percentage of 14.9 percent). They’ll be going up against the stingy defense of the Thunder, which forces the most turnovers in the league (15.3 percent).

Of Memphis’ 81 games, 43 have finished under the projected point total, while 46 of Oklahoma City’s 81 games have finished under the projected point total. The Thunder have the superior straight up (SU) record (47-34 vs. 22-59), but both teams have comparable against the spread (ATS) records. Oklahoma City is 33-46-2, while Memphis is 34-44-3 ATS.

Westbrook has really been playing well over the last five games for Oklahoma City, averaging 29.2 points, 11.6 rebounds, 9.4 assists and 2.6 steals per game.

These two teams have already met three times this season, with the Thunder winning all three. Westbrook recorded 23 points, 15 assists and 13 rebounds in the most recent contest, in which the Thunder beat the Grizzlies 121-114, covering as 4.5-point favorites. The two teams combined to score 235 points, which was 26.5 points above the projected point total of 208.5 points. The Thunder played a flawless game. They had a great free throw rate of 0.296 and a superb turnover percentage of 8.5. For those same stats, the Grizzlies were 0.140 and 11.5, respectively.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Odds Prediction

Pick: SU Winner – Grizzlies, ATS Winner – Grizzlies, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Thunder rank first in points off turnovers per game (18.6) while the Grizzlies rank 21st in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.3).
  • Oklahoma City ranks 16th in points in the paint per game (43.9) while Memphis ranks 25th (42.2).
  • Oklahoma City ranks first in second chance points per game (15.1) while Memphis ranks 19th (11.7).
  • Oklahoma City is 15-23-2 ATS at home, while Memphis is 16-22-2 ATS on the road.
  • Of the Grizzlies’ 40 road games, they have 22 overs, 17 unders and 1 push.
  • The Thunder have 23 unders and 17 overs in 40 home games.
  • When holding opponents below 100 points, Oklahoma City is 22-5 and Memphis is 13-12.
  • The Grizzlies are 17-22 when they score more than 100 points, while the Thunder are 43-18.
  • The Thunder average 5.0 blocks per game, which ranks 10th in the NBA. The Grizzlies rank 22nd in blocks allowed per game (5.2).
  • Oklahoma City ranks fifth in rebounds per game (45.1) while Memphis ranks 29th (40.5).
  • The Thunder average 15.0 fast break points per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. The Grizzlies rank 25th in fast break points allowed per game (14.1).
  • The Grizzlies are 26th in the NBA with 21.5 assists per game while the Thunder are 28th with 21.2 assists per game.
  • Oklahoma City ranks first in steals per game (9.1) while Memphis ranks 21st (7.5).

Bettings Trends:

  • Oklahoma City is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over in their last five games.
  • Over their last five games, Memphis is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • The Thunder’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.6, up from 3.3 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Grizzlies have scored an average of 102.0 points per game (3.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 112.0 points per game (6.9 above their season average).