Massachusetts Minutemen at Ohio Bobcats: 9/29/2018 Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The Massachusetts Minutemen (+14) are making a trip west to face the Ohio Bobcats at Peden Stadium. This afternoon matchup is scheduled to get underway at 2:00 p.m. ET and ESPN 3 will televise the action.

Betting Preview: Ohio Bobcats vs. Massachusetts Minutemen

In this Saturday game, Ohio is getting picked as the heavy favorite and the team’s currently giving up 14 points. The Minutemen are also receiving +500 moneyline odds while the Bobcats are -735. On the surface it appears that there should be multiple good live betting opportunities in this showdown.

The Minutemen are 2-3 against the spread (ATS) and are down 1.0 unit so far in 2018. The team has posted an O/U record of 4-1.

The Bobcats are down 2.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 1-2 ATS and own an O/U record of 2-0.

The Minutemen have gone 2-3 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Bobcats are 1-2 SU.

The Minutemen are coming off a resounding 49-31 victory over Charlotte last week where their D allowed the 49ers to air it out for 283 yards and three touchdowns. Victor Tucker had a productive day for the 49ers in that one with 130 yards on eight catches. Offensively, Michael Curtis completed 12 passes for just 189 yards and two touchdowns. Jordan Fredericks (just 30 rushing yards on 13 attempts) and Marquis Young (74 yards on 12 carries, two TDs) led the ground attack in the win while Andy Isabella (six receptions, 85 yards, one TD) and Young (two catches, 18 yards) handled the receiving duties.

One week ago, Cincinnati knocked off this Ohio team by a score of 34-30. The Bobcats defense let the Bearcats kill the clock by rushing for 150 yards on 34 attempts, including three rush TDs. Michael Warren II had a good outing, recording 124 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 23 attempts for Cincinnati. For Ohio, Nathan Rourke completed 12-of-27 passes for 178 yards, one touchdown and one interception. A.J. Ouellette (71 rushing yards on 21 attempts, one TD) and Maleek Irons (64 yards on 12 carries) mounted the ground game in the defeat as Cameron Odom (five receptions, 114 yards) and Papi White (two catches, 23 yards) led the receiving corps.

Massachusetts has run the ball on 52.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Ohio has an overall rush percentage of 55.8 percent. The Minutemen have produced 159.2 rush yards per game and have 13 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Bobcats are averaging 166.0 rushing yards per game and have six total rush TDs.

The Minutemen offensive scheme has logged 233.8 yards per contest in the air overall and has eight passing TDs so far. The Bobcats have produced 233.7 pass yards per outing and have five total pass scores.

Massachusetts appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team’s let opponents run for an average of 229.2 yards and pass for 218.6 yards per game. The Ohio defense has allowed 379.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 161.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Minutemen are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 8.63 to opponents, while the Bobcats have given up an ugly 9.59 ANY/A.

Offensively, Curtis is up to 215 passing yards this season. The signal-caller has connected on 15-of-22 attempts with two scores through the air and has yet to throw an interception. Curtis has a sparkling 10.87 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 8.42 over the past two outings.

We’re expecting the Minutemen to control tempo by putting the ball in the hands of their running backs. Along with Andy Isabella (407 yards, three TDs), Marquis Young (244 rush yards, four rush TDs, 51 receiving yards) and Jordan Fredericks (85 rush yards, one rush TD, one receiving TD) have delivered in the Massachusetts offensive scheme.

On the other sideline, Nathan Rourke has completed 14-of-35 passes for 222 yards, one TD and one INT. Rourke’s ANY/A sits at a less-than-stellar 4.92 for the year and 6.50 over his past two games.

The Bobcats also like to rely on their backfield. In addition to Papi White (177 receiving yards, one receiving TD), Nathan Rourke (112 rush yards, one rush TD) and Maleek Irons (116 rush yards, one TD) have seen a lot of action recently.

When these two teams met last year, Ohio got the victory 58-50.

Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Ohio Bobcats Free Prediction

SU Winner: Ohio, ATS Winner: Ohio

Team Betting Trends

  • Massachusetts was favored by 6 points in its last game and the O/U going into it was 55. The over cashed and Massachusetts covered in the 49-31 victory over Charlotte.
  • Massachusetts has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its past two contests.
  • Ohio has averaged 4.7 YPC over its last two.
  • Ohio has lost three fumbles this season while Massachusetts has let five get away.
  • In its last three contests, Massachusetts is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Ohio was favored by 7 points in its last game and the Over/Under going into it was 56. The over cashed and Ohio failed to cover in the 34-30 defeat to Cincinnati.
  • The Minutemen offense has produced three pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Bobcats have accounted for two such plays.
  • The Massachusetts defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Ohio has given up five such plays.
  • The Massachusetts offense has created five rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Ohio has created four such runs.
  • The Minutemen defense has allowed 11 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Bobcats have given up three such runs.
  • Each team defense has tallied four sacks this season.