LSU Tigers vs. Florida Gators – 10/6/2018 Betting Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The No. 5 LSU Tigers (-2) are paying a visit to their conference counterpart No. 22 Florida Gators at Florida Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. This critical daytime game is scheduled to get underway at 3:30 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action live on CBS.

Betting Preview: Florida Gators vs. LSU Tigers

Florida is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 2 points in this Saturday SEC game. The Tigers are also receiving -130 moneyline odds while the Gators are +110. This SEC tilt should provide several decent in-game betting possibilities, and Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 44.5 points.

The betting odds have shifted a bit from where they were originally set. The line opened at 2.5 and the game’s O/U was initially placed at 45.

The profitable Tigers have gained 6.3 units so far and are 3-2 against the spread (ATS). The team’s recorded an O/U mark of 3-2.

The Gators are down 2.8 units this season. The team is 4-1 ATS and owns an O/U record of 1-3.

The Tigers are 5-0 straight up (SU), including 2-0 SU against conference opponents. The Gators are 4-1 SU overall and 2-1 SU in conference play.

The Tigers are hoping to stay unbeaten following a 45-16 victory over Ole Miss last week. The passing game was sharp as Joe Burrow completed 18 passes on 25 attempts for 292 yards and three touchdowns. Nick Brossette (72 rushing yards on 20 attempts, one TD) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (67 yards on 11 carries, one TD) provided the running attack while Justin Jefferson (five receptions, 99 yards, two TDs) and Stephen Sullivan (five catches, 50 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

Florida just picked up a 13-6 win over Mississippi State. Feleipe Franks completed 22-of-31 passes for 219 yards and one interception. Lamical Perine (55 rushing yards on 10 attempts) and Jordan Scarlett (21 yards on 10 carries) mounted the running game while Van Jefferson (four receptions, 29 yards) and Trevon Grimes (four catches, 34 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

LSU has run the ball on 62.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Florida has an overall rush percentage of 55.7 percent. The Tigers have rushed for 192.0 yards/game (including 201.0 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 13 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Gators are averaging 174.8 rush yards per game (149.0 in conference) and have six total rushing TDs.

The Tigers offense has tallied 204.6 yards per contest through the air overall (270.5 per game versus conference opposition) and has six passing TDs so far. The Gators have put up 203.4 pass yards per outing (219 against SEC competition) and have 13 total pass scores.

LSU has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 103.0 yards and pass for 230.8 yards per game. The Florida defense has given up 140.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 171.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Gators are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.40 to opposing QBs, while the Tigers have given up a 4.24 ANY/A.

Burrow likely has the edge over Franks in this matchup, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 8.49for the year and 9.60 over the past two games. Franks’ ANY/A is 7.21 for the season and 7.35 across his past two outings.

When these two schools met last year, LSU got the victory over Florida, 17-16.

LSU Tigers vs. Florida Gators NCAA Prediction

SU Winner: Florida, ATS Winner: Florida, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • The Florida defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 15 times this year. LSU has recorded 13 sacks.
  • The Florida offense has lost two fumbles in 2018 while the LSU offense has lost three.
  • The Tigers offense has created four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Gators have accounted for two such plays.
  • Both defenses have allowed two pass plays of 40 or more yards. The LSU defense has given up 10 pass plays of 30+ yards while Florida has given up three such plays.
  • The LSU offense has created four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Florida has created eight such runs.
  • The Tigers defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Gators have given up 10 such runs.
  • Florida was favored by 7 points in its previous outing and the Over/Under was set at 52. The under cashed and the spread pushed in the team’s 13-6 win over Mississippi State.
  • In its last three matchups, Florida is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • In its last three contests, LSU is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • LSU was favored by 11 points in its previous game and the Over/Under going into it was 59. The over cashed and LSU covered in the 45-16 victory over Ole Miss.
  • LSU, as a team, has produced 4.42857142857143 yards per carry over its past three contests and 5.1 over its last two.
  • Florida has averaged 5.6 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.7 over its last two.