Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Georgia State Panthers: NCAA Football Betting Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The Louisiana-monroe Warhawks (-8.5) and Georgia State Panthers will go head-to-head on the turf at Parker H. Petit Field at Georgia State Stadium. This conference showdown is scheduled to get going at 2:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to ESPN+.

Betting Preview: Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Georgia State Panthers

Georgia State is entering this SBC game as a noticeable underdog and is currently getting 8.5 points. The Warhawks are also receiving -350 moneyline odds while the Panthers are +270. If one side can create a bunch of points early, it will likely create a reasonable in-game betting scenario.

The general public has been siding with the Warhawks. This game’s line opened at 7.

The Warhawks have recorded 0.9 units so far in 2018 and are 1-3 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an Over-Under mark of 1-2.

The Panthers have gained 0.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 1-3 ATS and also have an O/U record of 1-2.

The Warhawks are 2-2 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against conference opponents. The Panthers are 1-3 SU overall and are also 0-0 SU in conference play.

These two squads faced off last year with the final result being a 47-37 victory for Georgia State.

The Warhawks fell to Troy 35-27 in a contest where their defense allowed the Trojans to pass for 329 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 140 yards and two scores. Offensively, Caleb Evans completed 29-of-48 passes for 290 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Evans (101 yards on 15 rush attempts) also mounted the ground attack and was complemented by Derrick Gore (52 yards on 10 carries, one TD). Gore (seven receptions, 38 yards) and Sloan Spiller (four catches, 25 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

One week ago, Western Michigan took care of this Georgia State crew by a score of 34-15. Dan Ellington completed 19-of-29 passes for 285 yards and one interception. Ellington (35 yards on 18 rush attempts, two TDs) handled the running game as Penny Hart (five receptions, 91 yards) and Cornelius McCoy (five catches, 80 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Louisiana-Monroe has run the ball on 46.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Georgia State has an overall rush percentage of 53.2 percent. The Warhawks have rushed for 167.5 yards per game and have four scores on the ground this year. The Panthers are logging 116.5 rush yards per game and have five total rushing TDs.

If the results so far this season are any indication, then it seems like the Warhawks ought to hold an advantage in all aspects of the ground game, since their backfield has produced 4.9 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 4.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Panthers have registered 3.3 yards per carry and allowed 6.2 YPC to opponents.

The Warhawks offense has averaged 264.0 yards through the air overall and has seven passing scores so far. The Panthers have produced 213.3 pass yards per contest and have three total pass TDs.

On the defensive side of the ball, Louisiana-Monroe has allowed 137.8 rush yards and 330.3 pass yards per game. The Georgia State D has given up 282.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 250.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Warhawks are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 8.35 to opposing QBs, while the Panthers have given up a whopping 10.80 ANY/A.

Offensively, Evans has amassed 831 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 79-of-129 attempts with six passing scores and three interceptions. Evans has a 6.07 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.50 over the last two outings.

Look for a balanced approach offensively from Louisiana-Monroe in this one. Caleb Evans (202 rushing yards, one rush TD, 0 receiving yards on the year), Derrick Gore (170 rush yards, two rush TDs, 58 receiving yards) and Marcus Green (224 receiving yards, four TDs) have each played big roles lately.

Dan Ellington has completed 54-of-85 passes for 666 yards, three TDs and one INT for Georgia State. His ANY/A sits at 6.68 for the season and 4.55 over his past two games.

As a trio, Destin Coates, Penny Hart and Cornelius McCoy have combined to account for 382 total yards over the last two games.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Georgia State Panthers Betting Prediction

SU Winner: Louisiana-Monroe, ATS Winner: Louisiana-Monroe

Betting Notes

  • Louisiana-Monroe was getting 4 points in its previous game and the O/U was 58. The over cashed and Louisiana-Monroe failed to cover in the 35-27 loss to Troy.
  • Louisiana-Monroe, as a team, has averaged 4.86315789473684 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.7 over its last two.
  • Georgia State has averaged 3.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.2 over its past two.
  • Georgia State has lost four fumbles this season while Louisiana-Monroe has lost two.
  • In its last three contests, Louisiana-Monroe is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Georgia State was getting 10 points in its previous matchup and the O/U going into it was 61. The under cashed and Georgia State failed to cover in the team’s 34-15 loss to Western Michigan.
  • In its last three contests, Georgia State is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Warhawks offense has produced four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Panthers have put up two such plays.
  • The Louisiana-Monroe defense has allowed two pass plays of 40+ yards, while Georgia State has given up four such plays.
  • Both teams have produced four rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Louisiana-Monroe offense has recorded 22 running plays of 10+ yards while Georgia State has accounted for 21 such plays.
  • The Warhawks defense has allowed four rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Panthers have given up seven such runs.
  • The Louisiana-Monroe defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 11 times this year. Georgia State has recorded just two sacks.