Liberty Flames at New Mexico Lobos – Betting Pick

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The Lobos of New Mexico (-7) are gearing up to welcome the Liberty Flames to Dreamstyle Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: New Mexico Lobos vs. Liberty Flames

Liberty is a live dog in this Saturday matchup and is currently getting 7 points. The Flames are also receiving +210 moneyline odds while the Lobos are -270. Multiple solid live betting possibilities should be unveiled during the game.

The line originally opened at -9 but the early action has been leaning in favor of the Flames.

The Flames have lost 0.2 units this season and are 1-2 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 1-2.

The Lobos are up 1.0 unit this year. The team is 2-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-0.

The Flames are 1-2 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Lobos are 2-1 SU.

The Flames came up short to North Texas 47-7 in a blowout where their defense allowed the Mean Green to eat up the clock by rushing for 346 yards on 47 attempts, including five rush TDs. Loren Easly was on a different level for the Mean Green in that one with 177 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 27 attempts. On the offense, Stephen Calvert completed just 16 passes on 39 attempts for 222 yards, along with one TD and an interception. Frankie Hickson (96 yards on 21 rush attempts) led the ground attack in the loss while DJ Stubbs (six receptions, 95 yards) and Antonio Gandy-Golden (five catches, 51 yards) handled the receiving duties.

New Mexico just picked up a 42-25 win over New Mexico State back in Week 3. The team’s defensive unit allowed the Aggies to rush for 119 yards on 36 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Jason Huntley was a force to be reckoned with, putting up 67 rushing yards on 15 attempts, along with 87 yards on four catches for New Mexico State. For New Mexico, Sheriron Jones completed 12-of-19 passes for 127 yards and one interception. Tyrone Owens (110 rushing yards on 30 attempts, one TD) and Ahmari Davis (74 yards on 21 carries, four TDs) mounted the ground game in the win as Elijah Lilly (four receptions, 53 yards) and Anselem Umeh (two catches, 28 yards) led the pass-catching attack.

Liberty has run the ball on 47.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New Mexico has a rush percentage of 69.9 percent. The Flames have run for 156.7 yards/game and have three touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Lobos are averaging 198.0 rush yards per game and have nine total rushing TDs.

It appears that the Lobos might be the more disruptive team in the trenches, since their offensive line has allowed just four sacks while the D-line has registered seven sacks. The Flames offensive line has allowed five sacks and their defense has recorded only two sacks.

The Flames offense has logged 294.0 yards per game in the air overall and has seven passing TDs so far. The Lobos have produced 207.3 pass yards per outing and also have seven total pass scores.

On the defensive side of the ball, Liberty should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 308.0 rush yards and 139.3 pass yards per game. The New Mexico defense has given up 240.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 260.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Lobos are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.49 to opposing QBs, while the Flames have given up a 6.56 ANY/A.

Offensively, Calvert has amassed 567 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 41-of-75 attempts with five scores through the air and only one interception. He’s got a 7.68 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.69 over the past two outings.

Damian King, Kentory Matthews and DJ Stubbs have collectively accounted for 458 yards from scrimmage over the last two outings.

Sheriron Jones has completed 13-of-22 passes for 149 yards, one TD and one INT for New Mexico. His ANY/A sits at a very poor 3.96 for the year and 1.62 over his past two outings.

We’re thinking the Lobos will control tempo by feeding the running backs early and often. Elijah Lilly (114 receiving yards, one TD this season) has contributed lately, but Tyrone Owens (168 rush yards, three rush TDs) and Ahmari Davis (113 rush yards, four rush TDs) have been focal points in the Lobos’ recent offensive gameplans.

Liberty Flames vs. New Mexico Lobos Free NCAA Betting Tip

SU Winner: New Mexico, ATS Winner: New Mexico

Team Betting Notes

  • As a team, Liberty has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last two matchups.
  • New Mexico has averaged 3.0 YPC over its last two.
  • Both teams have lost three fumbles this year.
  • The Flames offense has registered two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Lobos have put up four such plays.
  • The Liberty defense has allowed two pass plays of 40+ yards, while New Mexico has given up four such plays.
  • Both defenses have produced three rushing plays of 20+ yards. The Liberty offense has recorded 16 running plays of 10+ yards while New Mexico has accounted for 18 such plays.
  • The Flames defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Lobos have given up four such runs.
  • The New Mexico D has sacked opposing quarterbacks seven times this season. Liberty has registered two sacks.