Kansas State Wildcats at Baylor Bears: 10/6/2018 Betting Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The Kansas State Wildcats and Baylor Bears will collide on the turf at McLane Stadium. Kickoff for this Big 12 matchup is set for 3:30 p.m. ET and FS1 is scheduled to broadcast the action.

Betting Preview: Kansas State Wildcats vs. Baylor Bears

Kansas State is the road underdog in this Big 12 game and is currently being given 6 points. The Wildcats are also receiving +185 moneyline odds while the Bears are -230. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 55.5 points, and if one team catches a lucky break early, it will likely lead to a nice betting scenario in-game.

Sharp bettors have been hammering the Bears. The line opened at -5, while the game’s over/under has yet to move after it was initially posted at 55.5.

The Wildcats are 2-3 against the spread (ATS) and are down 2.0 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 1-3.

The Bears are up 0.7 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-3 ATS and three of their games have gone over the total.

The Wildcats are 2-3 straight up (SU), including 0-2 SU against conference opponents. The Bears are 3-2 SU overall and are also 1-1 SU in conference play.

When these two programs faced each other a year ago, Kansas State earned the win 33-20.

The Wildcats came up short to Texas 19-14 in a contest where the passing attack could’ve been sharper as the Wildcats completed 11-of-25 passes for 110 yards. Skylar Thompson went eight-for-18 for 96 yards while Alex Delton completed three-of-seven for 14 yards. Alex Barnes (80 rushing yards on 19 attempts, one TD) and Alex Delton (27 yards on 16 carries) provided the running attack while Isaiah Zuber (five receptions, 33 yards) and Dalton Schoen (five catches, 67 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

Back on September 29, Oklahoma took care of this Baylor crew by a score of 66-33. The Bears defense allowed the Sooners to pass for 432 yards and six touchdowns while rushing for 175 yards and three scores. Marquise Brown had a productive showing for Oklahoma, recording 132 yards and two touchdowns on five catches. For Baylor, Charlie Brewer completed 38-of-60 passes for 400 yards and two touchdowns. Brewer (-20 rushing yards on 11 attempts, one TD) and JaMycal Hasty (43 yards on 10 carries) mounted the running game as Denzel Mims (11 receptions, 114 yards, one TD) and Jalen Hurd (nine catches, 104 yards, one TD) led the Baylor pass-catchers in the loss.

Kansas State’s run the ball on 62.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Baylor has an overall rush percentage of 46.4 percent. The Wildcats have rushed for 146.2 yards/game (including 99.0 per game versus Big 12 opponents) and have four touchdowns on the ground this year. The Bears are putting up 156.6 rushing yards per game (133.5 in conference) and have 10 total rush TDs.

The Wildcats offensive scheme has logged 174.8 yards per game through the air overall (168.5 per game versus conference opposition) and has five passing TDs so far. The Bears have produced 331.4 pass yards per game (337 in the Big 12) and have 11 total pass scores.

Kansas State has allowed opponents to run for an average of 164.6 yards and throw for 230.4 yards per game. The Baylor D has allowed 231.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 168.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Wildcats are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.91 to opposing QBs, while the Bears have allowed a 7.67 ANY/A.

Brewer has been more sharp than Thompson of late. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 7.21 for the year and 7.00 over his last two outings while Thompson’s ANY/A is 6.11 and 6.08 over the last two outings.

Kansas State Wildcats at Baylor Bears Free Prediction

SU Winner: Baylor, ATS Winner: Baylor, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • The Baylor defensive unit has created twice as many sacks as Kansas State this season (10 to five).
  • Baylor has lost three fumbles this season while Kansas State has lost five.
  • The Wildcats offense has created three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bears have put up five such plays.
  • The Kansas State defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Baylor has given up six such plays.
  • The Kansas State offense has created six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Baylor has created four such runs.
  • The Wildcats defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Bears have given up 13 such runs.
  • Baylor was favored by 21 points in its last outing and the O/U going into it was 69.5. The over cashed and Baylor failed to cover in the 66-33 loss to Oklahoma.
  • Over its last three contests, Baylor is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • In its last three contests, Kansas State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Kansas State has lost four of its last five games SU, with a 24-point victory over UTSA on September 15th accounting for the only win over that span.
  • Kansas State was the underdog by 9 points in its last game and the O/U was set at 48.5. The under cashed and Kansas State covered in the 19-14 loss to Texas.
  • Kansas State, as a team, has produced 3.04201680672269 yards per carry over its last three outings and 2.6 over its last two.
  • Baylor has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.5 over its past two.