Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Cleveland Indians will play host to their division rival Kansas City Royals at Progressive Field. SportsTime Ohio will be airing the action and the game gets underway at 4:10 p.m. ET.

Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians Odds

Kansas City (+182) is coming into this one as the underdog to Cleveland (-195) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this one at 9 runs (-115 for the over and -105 for the under). The games current runline odds stand at -120 for betting the Royals +1.5 runs and +100 for the Indians -1.5.

The Indians are 18-19 SU and 14-22 ATS. The team has lost 8.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 10.0 units against the spread (ATS). Cleveland has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Royals have gone 13-25 SU this year and are 16-21 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 11.1 units for gamblers taking the moneyline in the seasons early going and 8.2 units ATS. Kansas Cityhas covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Cleveland games have an over/under record of 18-17-1 so far in 2018. Kansas City has been a decent under bet with a total record of 14-21-2.

Jakob Junis will get the nod for Kansas City. The right-handed Junis is 4-2 with a 3.18 ERA and 38 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Indians this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-0, 5.63 ERA and four strikeouts over eight innings).

The Indians are putting the ball in the right hand of Mike Clevinger (2-0, 2.76 ERA), who’s got 39 strikeouts and 14 walks this season as well as a 1.07 WHIP. Clevinger is 0-0 with four strikeouts and a 1.23 ERA across one starts against Kansas City this year.

Cleveland’s pitchers have allowed 4.5 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. Its starting pitching staff has a 3.57 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.44 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 9.1 K/9. In 10 games against AL Central foes, Indians starters have an ERA of 1.57 and the bullpens ERA is 1.98.

Cleveland’s offense is putting up 4.7 runs per contest, including 4.0 per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .206/.272/.412 over its last five contests and is 1-4 SU during that span.

Third baseman Jose Ramirez and shortstop Francisco Lindor have led the Indians batters this year. Ramirez is hitting .287/.374/.587 with 11 home runs, 24 RBIs, 24 runs and five steals, and Lindor is hitting .293 with 10 homers, 22 RBIs, 29 runs and five stolen bases.

In the visiting dugout, Kansas City’s pitching staff allowed 5.7 runs per game and its starters own a 5.11 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 7.25 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.86, along with a K-per-9 of 6.15.

Royals hitters have slashed .261/.329/.400 on their way to 4.2 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 7.6 per game over the teams last five contests (3-2 SU).

Kansas City’s hitters have been powered by right fielder Jorge Soler and third baseman Mike Moustakas. Soler is slashing .320/.426/.525 with five home runs, 17 RBIs and 18 runs scored, while Moustakas (.301/.335/.569) has produced 10 homers, 29 RBIs and 25 runs scored.

Soler didn’t do especially well against righty pitching on the road in 2017. Across 34 such plate appearances, he maintained a slash line of .103/.235/.138 (compared to his overall season line of .144/.245/.258).

The Royals have lost 14.3 units and are 8-14 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in eight of those games, compared to 12 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Indians have lost 6.8 units and are 9-14 ATS when facing a righty starter. The overs cashed in 11 of those games, compared to 11 that went under the total.

Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Indians, ATS Winner – Royals, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The Royals have hit 15 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.
  • Kansas City has recorded 28.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 31.6 over its last five.