Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos: Free Week 4 Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Football, NFL

The Kansas City Chiefs (-4) are set to face off against their AFC West foe Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. This Monday Night game gets underway at 8:15 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to ESPN.

Thursday Night FootballBetting Preview: Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Denver is the home underdog in this AFC game and is currently being given 4 points. The Chiefs are also receiving -170 moneyline odds while the Broncos are +150. There might be some good in-game betting opportunities in this matchup, and Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 55 points.

Sharp bettors have been siding with the Broncos. The opening line was 5, while the game’s total hasn’t changed after it was initially set at 55.

The Chiefs have gained 3.9 units so far and are 3-0 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 3-0.

The Broncos have gained 1.0 unit this season. The team is 0-2-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 1-2.

The Chiefs have gone 3-0 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against AFC West opponents. The Broncos are 2-1 SU overall and also 1-0 SU against divisional foes.

The Chiefs are hoping to stay unbeaten after a 38-27 win over San Francisco last weekTheir defense allowed the 49ers to run for 178 yards on 29 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Matt Breida had a good day for the 49ers in that one with 90 rushing yards on 10 attempts. On the offense, Patrick Mahomes completed 24 passes for 314 yards and three touchdowns. Kareem Hunt (44 yards on 18 rush attempts, two TDs) led the ground attack. Travis Kelce (eight receptions, 114 yards) and Sammy Watkins (five catches, 55 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Back in Week 3, Baltimore got the win against this Denver crew by a score of 27-14. The Broncos defensive secondary allowed the Ravens to air it out for 277 yards. John Brown had a solid outing for Baltimore, recording 86 yards on five catches. For Denver, Case Keenum completed 22-of-34 passes for 192 yards and one interception. Royce Freeman (53 rushing yards on 13 attempts, one TD) handled the running game as Booker (five receptions, 34 yards) and Demaryius Thomas (five catches, 63 yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.

Kansas City has run the ball on 46.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Denver has a rush percentage of 43.8 percent. The Chiefs have produced 103.3 rush yards/game (including 106.0 per game against West opponents) and have two touchdowns on the ground this year. The Broncos are totaling 144.7 rush yards per game (168.0 in conference) and have four total rushing TDs.

It seems like the Broncos should hold an edge in terms of efficiency in the ground game, as their backfield has generated 5.2 yards per carry while the defense has allowed a YPC of 3.3 to opponents. The Chiefs have recorded 3.9 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 5.2 to opponents.

The Chiefs offense has logged 298.7 yards per contest through the air overall (256.0 per game against conference opposition) and has 13 passing TDs so far. The Broncos have put up 247.7 pass yards per contest (222 against AFC competition) and have three total pass scores.

Defensively, Kansas City has allowed 111.3 rush yards and 375.7 pass yards per game. The Denver defense has allowed 287.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 77.7 yards per game on the ground. The Broncos are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 7.00 to opposing QBs, while the Chiefs have allowed an 8.18 ANY/A.

Offensively, Mahomes has amassed 570 passing yards on the year, and has completed 39-of-65 attempts with seven scores through the air and has yet to throw an interception. He has a sparkling 10.34 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 11.72 over the last two games.

Case Keenum has completed 47-of-73 passes for 521 yards, three TDs and four INTs for Denver. His ANY/A sits at a less-than-stellar 4.90 for the year and 4.11 over his past two outings.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos Free Prediction

SU Winner: Chiefs, ATS Winner: Chiefs, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • The Chiefs offense has created three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Broncos have accounted for one such play.
  • The Kansas City defense has allowed one pass play of 40+ yards, while Denver has given up three such plays.
  • Both teams have produced two rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The Kansas City offense has recorded seven running plays of 10+ yards while Denver has accounted for 12 such plays.
  • The Chiefs defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Broncos have given up one such run.
  • The Denver defense has tallied nine sacks on the year while Kansas City has six.
  • Kansas City, as a team, has averaged 3.8 yards per carry over its last two contests.
  • Denver has averaged 5.5 yards per carry over its last two.
  • In its last three matchups, Denver is 0-2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Kansas City was favored by 6 points in its last game and the O/U was set at 53. The over cashed and Kansas City covered in the 38-27 victory over San Francisco.
  • In its last three matches, Kansas City is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
  • Denver was favored by 6 points in its last outing and the O/U going into it was 46.5. The under cashed and Denver failed to cover in the 27-14 loss to Baltimore.