Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers – 10/6/2018 Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The Iowa Hawkeyes (-6.5) will clash with their Big 10 foe Minnesota Golden Gophers at TCF Bank Stadium. This key afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET and BTN will televise the action.

Betting Preview: Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers

In this Saturday Big Ten game, Iowa is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 6.5 points. The Hawkeyes are also receiving -270 moneyline odds while the Golden Gophers are +210. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 42.5 points. If Iowa falls behind in the early stages, it’ll likely generate a reasonable live betting opportunity.

Square bettors have been hammering the Hawkeyes, as the line opened at 5. The game’s total hasn’t changed after it was set initially at 42.5.

The Hawkeyes are 3-1 against the spread (ATS) and have recorded 2.0 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U mark of 1-2.

The Golden Gophers have gained 1.0 unit for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 3-1 ATS and have an even O/U record of 2-2.

The Hawkeyes have gone 3-1 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against Big 10 opponents. The Golden Gophers are 3-1 SU overall and 0-1 SU in conference play.

The Hawkeyes dropped one to Wisconsin 28-17 in a game where Nate Stanley completed 14 passes for 256 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Ivory Kelly-Martin (72 yards on 14 rush attempts) led the ground attack while T.J. Hockenson (three receptions, 125 yards) and Ihmir Smith-Marsette (three catches, 58 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

Minnesota just dropped an ugly 42-13 game to Maryland back in Week 4. Zack Annexstad completed 14-of-32 passes for 169 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Mohamed Ibrahim (95 rushing yards on 26 attempts) mounted the running game while Rashod Bateman (seven receptions, 68 yards, one TD) and Chris Autman-Bell (four catches, 70 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Each of these teams has a remarkably similar (61-39) run-pass ratio on the season. The Hawkeyes have rushed for 167.3 yards/game and have seven touchdowns on the ground this year. The Gophers are putting up 159.8 rush yards per game and have five total rushing TDs.

It seems like the Hawkeyes could have an advantage in all aspects of the ground game, since their backfield has generated 4.1 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 2.7 to opponents. The Golden Gophers have ran for 3.6 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 4.7 to opponents.

The Hawkeyes offense has averaged 225.8 yards in the air overall and has five passing scores so far. The Gophers have recorded 187.0 pass yards per game and have six total pass TDs.

Defensively, Iowa has allowed 84.0 rush yards and 176.5 pass yards per game. The Minnesota defense has allowed 167.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 132.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Gophers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.88 to opposing QBs, while the Hawkeyes have given up a 4.89 ANY/A.

Stanley has been more productive than Annexstad recently, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 6.61for the year and 10.15 over the past two games. Annexstad’s ANY/A is 5.15 for the year and 3.83 over his last two games.

When these two teams faced one another last year, Iowa knocked off Minnesota by a touchdown 17-10.

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers Free Pick

SU Winner: Minnesota, ATS Winner: Minnesota, O/U: Under

Team Betting Notes

  • The Iowa defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 13 times this year. Minnesota has recorded just seven sacks.
  • Minnesota has lost four fumbles this season while Iowa has lost two.
  • The Hawkeyes offense has recorded five pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Golden Gophers have put up zero such plays.
  • The Iowa defense has allowed one pass play of 40 yards or more, while Minnesota has given up two such plays.
  • Both defenses have produced three rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The Iowa offense has recorded 19 running plays of 10+ yards while Minnesota has accounted for 18 such plays.
  • The Hawkeyes defense has allowed one rushing play of 20 yards or more, while the Golden Gophers have given up seven such runs.
  • Minnesota was favored by 2 points in its last outing and the O/U was set at 46.5. The over cashed and Minnesota did not cover in the 42-13 defeat to Maryland.
  • Over its last three matches, Minnesota is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Iowa was the underdog by 3 points in its last game and the Over/Under was set at 44. The over cashed and Iowa failed to cover in the 28-17 defeat to Wisconsin.
  • As a team, Iowa has averaged 3.93162393162393 yards per carry over its past three contests and 4.4 over its last two.
  • Minnesota has averaged 2.7 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 2.5 over its last two.