Iowa Hawkeyes at Indiana Hoosiers: NCAA Football Free Pick

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A couple of teams that like to run the football, Coach Tom Allen and the Indiana Hoosiers are getting four points as they prepare to host the Iowa Hawkeyes to Memorial Stadium. This key Big 10 showdown is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to ESPN2.

Betting Preview: Indiana Hoosiers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

In this Saturday Big Ten game, Iowa is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 4 points. The Hawkeyes are also receiving -185 moneyline odds while the Hoosiers are +165. If one team can find paydirt early, it will likely produce a decent live betting scenario.

The early action has leaned in favor of the Hoosiers, as the line opened at 6.

Each of these teams has rewarded gamblers this season as both the Hawkeyes and the Hoosiers are up exactly 3.0 units so far.

The Hawkeyes are 4-1 straight up (SU), including 1-1 SU against conference opponents. The Hoosiers are 4-2 SU overall and 1-2 SU in conference play.

These two conference foes did not get a chance to play each other a year ago.

The Hawkeyes are coming off a resounding 48-31 victory over Minnesota last week. Nate Stanley completed 23 passes for 314 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Ivory Kelly-Martin (just 47 yards on 20 rush attempts) spearheaded the ground attack while Nick Easley (six receptions, 52 yards, one TD) and Brandon Smith (five catches, 68 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

One week ago, Ohio State knocked off this Indiana team by a score of 49-26. Peyton Ramsey completed 26-of-49 passes for 322 yards and three touchdowns. Ramsey (10 rushing yards on 10 attempts) and Stevie Scott (64 yards on nine carries) spearheaded the running game as J-Shun Harris II (eight receptions, 104 yards) and Nick Westbrook (five catches, 109 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Iowa has run the ball on 58.4 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 53.4 percent across possessions in conference play. Indiana has a run percentage of 50.2 percent, and has rushed the ball 41.3 percent of the time against Big 10 opponents. The Hawkeyes have produced 155.0 rush yards/game (including 127.0 per game against Big Ten opponents) and have nine scores on the ground this year. The Hoosiers are averaging 163.5 rushing yards per game (92.0 in conference) and have seven total rush TDs.

The Hawkeyes offense has tallied 243.4 yards per game in the air overall (285.0 per game versus conference opposition) and has nine passing TDs so far. The Hoosiers have recorded 247.7 pass yards per game (294 in the Big 10) and have 12 total pass scores.

Defensively, Iowa appears to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 84.4 yards and throw for 188.0 yards per game. The Indiana D has given up 212.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 157.5 yards per game to opposing runners. The Hawkeyes are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.20 to opposing QBs, while the Hoosiers have given up a 5.69 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Stanley has amassed 897 yards this season. He’s connected on 62 percent of his 118 attempts with seven passing scores and three interceptions. He has a 7.16 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 9.41 over the last two outings.

We expect the Iowa offense to mix it up in this one. As a group, T.J. Hockenson, Ivory Kelly-Martin and Ihmir Smith-Marsette have collectively accounted for 506 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns over the last two outings.

For the home team, Peyton Ramsey has completed 114-of-171 passes for 1,073 yards, 10 TDs and four INTs. Ramsey’s ANY/A sits at 5.87 for the year and 6.74 across his past two games.

As a trio, Nick Westbrook, J-Shun Harris II and Stevie Scott have collectively accounted for 467 total yards and three touchdowns the last two games.

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Indiana Hoosiers Free Pick

SU Winner: Iowa, ATS Winner: Iowa

Betting Notes

  • The Indiana offense has lost four fumbles this season while Iowa has let three get away.
  • The Iowa D has sacked opposing QBs 18 times this year. Indiana has produced just 10 sacks.
  • Iowa has averaged 3.8099173553719 yards per rush attempt across its last three games and 3.6 over its last two.
  • Indiana has averaged 2.9 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.9 over its last two.
  • Over its last three games, Indiana is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Iowa was getting 7 points in its previous game and the O/U going into it was 41.5. The over cashed and Iowa covered in the 48-31 win over Minnesota.
  • Indiana was favored by 28 points in its last game and the Over/Under was 64.5. The over cashed and Indiana failed to cover in the 49-26 defeat to Ohio State.