Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts – Free Week 7 Betting Prediction

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The Houston Texans will meet the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. This crucial AFC South matchup is scheduled to kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to CBS.

Betting Preview: Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts

Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 48 points, and if one team finds paydirt early on, it will probably create a decent in-game betting opportunity.

Odds have moved slightly from where they initially opened. The line opened at 1 and the game’s total was originally placed at 47.5.

Both of these teams have been profitable this season as the Texans have gained 1.5 units while the Colts are up 2.4 units.

The Texans are 4-2 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against AFC South opponents. The Colts are 3-2 SU overall and also 1-0 SU versus divisional foes.

The Texans just pulled off a 31-24 win over Kansas City last week. The Texans secondary allowed the Chiefs to air it out for 273 yards and three touchdowns. On the offensive side of the ball, Deshaun Watson completed 30-of-42 passes for 280 yards, one score and two interceptions. Carlos Hyde (116 yards on 26 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Watson (42 yards on 10 carries, two TDs) led the running attack. DeAndre Hopkins (nine receptions, 55 yards) and Darren Fells (six catches, 69 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

Indianapolis is coming off of a 19-13 win over Kansas City. Jacoby Brissett completed 18-of-29 passes for 151 yards and one interception. Marlon Mack (132 rushing yards on 29 attempts) handled the running game while T.Y. Hilton (four receptions, 37 yards) and Nyheim Hines (four catches, 46 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

Houston’s run the ball on 45.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Indianapolis has a rush percentage of 48.8 percent. The Texans have run for 139.8 yards per game (including 126 per game against South opponents) and have eight touchdowns on the ground this year. The Colts are putting up 142 rush yards per game (167 in conference) and have three total rushing TDs.

If 2019 numbers can translate to this game, then it’s looking like the Texans might have the edge in all aspects of the ground game, as their backfield has produced 5.0 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 4.4 to opponents. The Colts have tallied 4.5 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 5.1 to opponents.

The Texans offensive scheme has tallied 274 yards/game through the air overall (159 per game against conference opposition) and has 12 passing scores so far. The Colts have recorded 212.4 pass yards per contest (146 against AFC competition) and have 10 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Houston has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 88 yards and throw for 289.3 yards per game. The Indianapolis D has allowed 260.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 113.2 yards per game to opposing runners. The Texans are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.69 to opponents, while the Colts have given up a 7.37 ANY/A.

Offensively, Watson has amassed 1,218 passing yards this season, and has completed 67 percent of his 168 attempts with seven passing scores and three interceptions. Watson’s got a 6.03 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 9.81 over the past two outings.

As a group, Will Fuller V, Carlos Hyde and DeAndre Hopkins have combined to account for 594 total yards and five touchdowns over the last couple of outings.

Jacoby Brissett has completed 84-of-121 passes for 797 yards, seven TDs and two INTs for Indianapolis. His ANY/A sits at 6.26 for the year and 5.15 across his past two outings.

We’re expecting the Colts to control tempo by putting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Along with WR Zach Pascal (61 receiving yards, one receiving TD this season), Marlon Mack (431 rush yards, two rush TDs) and Nyheim Hines (24 rush yards, 81 receiving yards) have been significant factors in the Colts’ recent offensive gameplans.

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Pick

SU Winner: Texans, ATS Winner: Texans, O/U: Over

Betting Trends

  • The Texans offense has created four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Colts have put up one such play.
  • The Houston defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Indianapolis has given up one such play.
  • The Houston offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Indianapolis has created five such runs.
  • The Texans defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Colts have given up five such runs.
  • The Houston defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 16 times this season. Indianapolis has registered 13 sacks.
  • As a team, Houston has produced 5.1 yards per carry across its last three contests and 4.8 over its last two.
  • Indianapolis has averaged 3.7 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 3.8 over its past two.
  • In its last three matchups, Indianapolis is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Houston’s last game was 54.5. The over cashed in the team’s 31-24 win over Kansas City.
  • Over its last three matchups, Houston is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Indianapolis’ previous outing going into it was 55. The under cashed in the 19-13 win over Kansas City.
  • Houston has won five of its last six games SU, with a September 29th defeat to Carolina accounting for the only loss over that stretch.
  • Indianapolis has won four of its last five games SU, with a -7-point defeat to Oakland on September 29th representing the only loss over that span.