Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors Free Prediction

Jose VasquezArticles, Basketball, NBA

The Houston Rockets (1-1) will travel to ORACLE Arena to clash against the Golden State Warriors (1-1) in game three of the Western Conference Finals. The Rockets opened as 7.5-point underdogs. The games Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 226.5 points and it will air on TNT at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 20, 2018.

Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors ATS Odds

In game two, Harden led the Rockets to a 127-105 victory. He recorded a double-double with 27 points and 10 rebounds. Houston covered as a 2-point favorite and the two teams combined to score 232 points, which was over the projected point total of 225. The Rockets 27.0 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over the Warriors, who had a mark of 19.6.

The game should be a showdown of strength against strength as the high-powered offense of Golden State (second in the league with an offensive efficiency of 112.4) takes on the stingy defense of Houston (fifth in the league with a defensive efficiency of 104.4). The Rockets should be expected to protect the ball well. They rank 4th at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.8 percent), while the Warriors force the seventh-fewest turnovers in the NBA (opponents turnover percentage of 13.1 percent).

Vegas is known to place the total high when the Rockets are involved, as 52 of their 94 games have finished under the O/U total. Houston comes into the game with records of 74-20 straight up (SU) and 48-44-2 against the spread (ATS).

Vegas is extremely precise when predicting totals of Warriors games, with an even split between overs and unders. Golden State has a phenomenal 67-27 SU record, but they struggle covering the spread (39-52-3 ATS).

In the playoffs, the Warriors are 14-10 with 14 unders, nine overs and one push while the Rockets are 1-4 ATS with four unders and one over,

Chris Paul has been playing at a high level recently for Houston, averaging 25.8 points, 8.4 rebounds, 5.6 assists and 1.6 steals over the last five games.

Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors Pick

Free Pick: SU Winner – Warriors, ATS Winner – Rockets, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Warriors rank 21st in points in the paint per game (43.5) while the Rockets rank 28th (41.2).
  • Golden State ranks first in assists per game (29.1) while Houston ranks 27th (21.4).
  • The Rockets average 17.0 points off turnovers per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. The Warriors rank 26th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.1).
  • Golden State ranks first in fast break points per game (19.0) while Houston ranks 17th (11.2).
  • Golden State ranks first in blocks per game (7.2) while Houston ranks 13th (4.9).
  • The Rockets average 8.5 steals per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. The Warriors rank 28th in steals allowed per game (8.6).
  • The Rockets rank first in three pointers attempted per game (42.0) while the Warriors rank 16th (29.1).
  • Houston ranks sixth in second chance points allowed per game (11.6) while Golden State ranks 25th (13.4).
  • In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, Golden State is 19-5 and Houston is 36-3.
  • In games where they score more than 100 points, the Warriors are 63-17 and the Rockets are 71-15.
  • Houston is 27-17-1 ATS on the road, while Golden State is 18-27-2 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone under in 27 of the Rockets 45 road games, while 23 of the Warriors 47 home games have gone over.

Betting Trends:

  • The Rockets are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Warriors are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Houston has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Golden State has 4 unders and 1 over.
  • During their last five games, the Rockets have scored an average of 111.6 points per game (0.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 101.0 points per game (2.6 below their season average).
  • The Warriors’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 1.4, down from 6.0 for the season.